Originally featured in Crypto Insights Group’s Q2 outlook report.

Crypto is getting everything we wished for - broad adoption, clearer regulation, legitimacy - yet a gulf has opened between two camps. Institutions are bullish, while crypto-natives are distraught and infighting.

What’s going on?

Institutions are stepping further into the frontier just as many crypto-natives step back. Institutions are gaining vision. Many others are losing the one that got us started.

Reshaping finance is wonderful. But it can’t be our ceiling. The loss is losing sight of what’s possible beyond it.

The rift in sentiment is the byproduct of fear - and collapsing vision. When price moves against conviction for long enough, many flinch and bail. Vision dies with them.

We’ve seen this before. These moments - when vision is most difficult to hold - are the rare windows when it is most rewarded.

It’s our job to keep expanding the vision and boldly building towards it - not contract to what now sits within our grasp.

Crypto is not “just” fintech. It’s coordination technology, at its inflection point.

Coordination technologies are among history’s most formative: language, money, capitalism, the internet. Each expanded human possibility in a continual arc of progress.

Crypto is the next one. It gives us new tools to orchestrate human, financial, and technological capital more openly and with less friction than anything before it. Crypto amplifies the productivity of every system it touches.

Finance is just the first example. We’re still at the “pizza shop putting its menu online” stage. But of course, the internet became much more than a digital billboard - its economy has grown 1,000x since.

In 2000, internet infrastructure emerged, but its defining companies were years away. Broadband - fast, cheap, and high-throughput - unlocked richer products and experiences.

Crypto is now at its broadband moment. Negligible costs and near-instant speeds only arrived in the last couple of years. The infrastructure is finally mature enough to support the application layer.

AI is becoming the abstraction layer between us and every system we touch - and it will create billions of new economic actors that don’t fit existing rails built for humans. They need to transact at machine speed on a coordination system that’s programmable, permissionless, and neutral.

That’s crypto.

As Ben Horowitz put it:

“Networks and computers tend to grow together. AI is a new kind of computer and crypto is a new kind of network.”

Think of the collision this way:

• Stablecoins are email. The first killer application. Essential, but can seem trivial to crypto-natives.

• AI agents are the browser. The abstraction layer that sits between humans and the products we use. AI makes crypto usable for billions without anyone knowing its complexities.

• The application layer follows. This is where the opportunity goes exponential.

Crypto’s application layer is a generational opportunity.

Crypto’s leading applications won’t be better versions of existing products. They’ll be new categories of ownership, and exchange - creating markets far bigger than anyone anticipates. The internet didn’t just digitize the Yellow Pages - it unleashed a new form of advertising, now bigger than the entire pre-internet global advertising market ever was.

The market has not re-rated to reflect this. We see a $100T opportunity over the coming decades. Crypto is less than $3T today - less than 3% of the way there.

Infrastructure ownership alone is insufficient - the most asymmetric returns will come from the application layer.

With crypto, we can uniquely own this 50x-100x potential in a fully liquid portfolio - but it carries extreme volatility and regime sensitivity. Even the best projects have suffered drawdowns of 80%-95%, regardless of fundamentals.

Liquid markets make volatility fully visible - the cost of an opportunity this size. Managing the downside turns a 30x into something even more extraordinary.

Holding this position requires a specific approach. We blend long-term application-layer asymmetry with core infrastructure exposure, and overlay a macro- and regime-informed tail hedge to compress the drawdowns that shake people off.

We embrace volatility, but hedge tail risk.

This is why we’re here.

Opportunities at crypto’s frontier are astounding - but frontiers are messy. They can test conviction, pulling most into the short term. The temptation is to stay cautious and keep the thesis contained. But history punishes small thinking at inflection points like this.

Seen clearly, with conviction and discipline, the opportunity is generational.

The vision is intact. It’s still bigger than most realize. It demands a multi-decade time horizon. Few will hold through the turbulence.

This is what I built Comma for. I’m here because I believe in this generational opportunity - and that this is one of those rare windows when conviction is most rewarded. I’m not going anywhere.

Crypto is not just a better wire transfer. It is coordination technology for the AI age. The window to position for it is now.

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Is the war in Iran over or not?

It’s basically predictable at this point.

On Friday comes the declaration that we’ve agreed on a ceasefire and are working towards terms for peace.

Come Monday morning, the Strait of Hormuz is closed yet again and nothing’s been agreed.

[TLDR] Relative to where we were a month ago, things are undeniably better on the margin.

Last month, we were cautious in the short-term. This month, we’re cautiously optimistic.

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Market snapshot

For the month of March.

Crypto:

• BTC +2%

• ETH +7%

• SOL (-2%)

Equities:

• S&P 500 (-5%)

• NASDAQ (-4%)

Gold:

• Gold (-12%)

The single largest factor remains the Iran War. How does macro look?

• Financial conditions have eased slightly. The USD has weakened.

• Oil has come down, even through volatility.

• Rates have come down as well.

• Fed net liquidity is steadily rising, while there’s debate about global liquidity: Fed net liquidity is undeniably increasing, and debates on global liquidity are largely driven by fluctuations in the strength of the USD. The eSLR reductions for banks also kicked in April 1st, unleashing material lending capacity, which drives liquidity in the system.

• The real economy in the US is still expanding: The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, while the Services PMI decreased slightly - though both remained above 50, the key level denoting growth (vs. contraction). The bright spot - breadth of the expansion is increasing, with 13 of 18 industries reporting growth (up from low single digits).

• Inflation ticked back up above 3%: Truflation remains flat from last month, though still down from the end of 2025.

[TLDR] Macro has improved on the margin from last month. That said, oil prices still remain ~40% higher than before the war broke out.

The key risk in our view remains stagflation if the conflict remains unresolved - where these disruptions both increase inflation and hinder growth.

The Trump playbook: Markets are in charge

• The administration appears to be responding to a few key market metrics, just like in the Liberation Day aftermath of last year: As the 2-year approaches 4.0%, the 10-year approaches 4.5%, the MOVE index approaches 120, and the VIX remains above 30, Trump seems to pivot.

• While volatility remains, the trend is towards resolution, not (serious, prolonged) escalation: The weekend peace announcement, quickly undone with escalatory comments late Sunday/early Monday continues, but the trend is towards resolution. Key “fire alarm” metrics like the VIX and the MOVE index have come down dramatically.

• Markets often bottom on bad news: Markets are forward-looking, and respond more to the rate-of-change and overall direction than absolute levels. Though things remain unresolved, we believe it’s very possible that markets have bottomed since the path ahead is clearer than it was a month ago. Markets hate uncertainty more than almost anything else.

• Sentiment remains offsides if the recovery continues.

• The Trump administration has to pull a rabbit out of a hat ahead of the midterms: Let’s not forget how critical the midterm elections are - and they’re coming up this fall. The administration needs to turn things around to reverse the slide in approval ratings. Look for key shifts in his most unpopular domains - especially the economy and inflation. Trump may not be able to tame inflation, but look for “the acronym factory” - any means necessary to get money in people’s pockets. Translated: more liquidity, and more cowbell.

[TLDR] Though risks remain, in our view, the trend is towards resolution, and markets have likely bottomed in the short-term.

Crypto remains resilient, even through war and state-sponsored hacks

• Crypto remains the best performer from the day before the war broke out: The liquidity backdrop is still a key tailwind, and on the margin, financial conditions are improving. BTC is delivering on its vision - a neutral, non-sovereign store of value. In the context of global economic and kinetic war, its utility skyrockets.

• Crypto’s functionality through crises proves its value: Through both global military conflict and North Korea’s state-sponsored DeFi hack this past week, crypto’s protocols kept running. No successful hack is good news, but the absence of system-wide contagion is - the asset class is now resilient enough to absorb a sovereign-state attack without breaking.

• Open systems get stronger under stress: Free, permissionless protocols evolve in response to attacks in a way closed systems can’t. DeFi will learn from this vulnerability and end up stronger for it - the natural selection of free markets will ensure it. This is the long-run case for crypto in one sentence: every attack that gets absorbed compounds the system’s resilience.

• Sentiment will improve from here: Open technologies like crypto feel more chaotic in the short-term. This chaos and volatility feel grating, and it’s no surprise that crypto sentiment has been awful. But we think it’s bottomed. Our (somehow) contrarian view: crypto is in a better spot than it’s ever been. Crypto will be fine.

[TLDR] Crypto is behaving exactly as it should in this regime - liquidity-sensitive on the upside, resilient through stress on the downside. We remain deep believers in crypto over the long-term - and cautiously optimistic in the short-term as we navigate through the remainder of the war in Iran.

Until next month,
Devin

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War broke out. Now what?

The Straight of Hormuz is still closed.

Oil is up. The dollar is up. Yields are up. Inflation expectations are up.

And yet - crypto is up too.

[TLDR] Markets expect a quick resolution, but we see more downside risk than is priced in. In our view, left tail risk over the short- and medium-term has increased considerably, while right tail risk has decreased.

We’re still bullish for the year (and even more so over the long-term), but increasingly wary in the short-term. We’ve decreased risk over the last several weeks as a result.

Fundamentally, crypto’s technology is working as designed, and every crisis in which it thrives strengthens the case. These are the moments that crypto was built for.

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Market snapshot

For the month of February.

Crypto:

• BTC (-15%)

• ETH (-20%)

• SOL (-20%)

Equities:

• S&P 500 (-1%)

• NASDAQ (-2%)

Gold:

• Gold +11%

What has the Iran war done to macro? Our lead dominos are softening

• USD strengthening: USD ~+2% since the initial strikes in Iran, testing the 100 level.

• Treasury yields climbing: 2-year & 10-year treasury yields are ~+300bps & ~+250bps since initial strikes.

• Global liquidity dipping slightly: Still right at ATHs, but dipping slightly, largely due to the stronger USD and rising bond volatility.

• Inflation climbing: Truflation readings moved up from well below 1% to ~1.5%.

[TLDR] Oil prices are greatly elevated, and lead financial conditions signals are tightening in response.

Is this an issue for the business cycle? Not yet, but eventually

• We can survive an oil price shock - so long as it’s short-term: We’ve all had to become armchair geopolitical commentators over the last few weeks, “monitoring the situation” in the Strait of Hormuz - Iran’s key point of leverage. So long as they can keep it closed - and oil prices elevated - the risk of prolonged, global economic ramifications continue to rise. If the straight reopens soon, and oil prices cascade down, the business cycle and growth outlook can likely stay on track in its positive momentum over the last handful of months.

• That said, the US is more resilient than the rest of the world: The US is more isolated from these shocks, as our domestic oil production is robust. We’re more isolated, but not impervious. Polymarket odds of a recession have climbed noticeably.

[TLDR] I’m keeping an eye on whether we get a resolution by early April. A resolution within the month should keep the broader economic impacts at bay.

Our view is that US growth is resilient - material impacts on growth would take 6-12 months to truly show up - but the longer oil prices stay elevated (and our lead dominos continue to weaken), the greater the impact.

How are asset prices holding up? Surprisingly resiliently

• Equities & gold are still near ATHs.

• Crypto has materially outperformed since the war broke out.

[TLDR] Asset prices seem to expect in a resolution in short order.

Is the appropriate risk priced in? Not in our view

• While asset prices reflect expectations for short-term resolution, prediction markets and broader analysis suggest greater risk: Polymarket’s base case doesn’t see a ceasefire until at least June - longer than asset prices seem to suggest. Several more months of disruption would wreak havoc on supply chains and bruise the business cycle - perhaps even ending its expansion.

• This is not as easy to unwind as last year’s geopolitical shocks: Last year, geopolitical risks were sparked largely by Trump’s decisive attempts to restructure global trade and economic relationships. As such, when desired, the US could reverse course on a dime. But war is not a unilateral proposition. Even if desired, the US doesn’t have the ability to prompt a ceasefire on its own.

• The evidence: The Straight of Hormuz is still de fact closed, despite the US making statements to the contrary. This is a much more complex and multi-faceted chess board.

• Growth, financial conditions, and liquidity are worth watching: While growth impacts will take 6+ months to truly start to show up, the length of the conflict compounds other variables that in turn compound the macro puzzle. Namely, the longer oil prices stay elevated, the higher inflation expectations rise, the less likely rate cuts get, the higher rates get, the stronger the USD gets, and the tighter financial conditions and liquidity get. Not to mention the fact that elevated volatility and uncertainty are not market-friendly.

[TLDR] We don’t know how this will end, but we see more downside risk than asset prices seem to suggest.

Why is crypto up? It’s working as designed

• Liquidity is still the dominant driver - and it’s still right at ATHs: Global liquidity hit all-time highs heading into the conflict and remains right around those levels. Crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive asset class around.

• BTC is trading more like digital gold than the NASDAQ: For now, BTC is delivering on its vision - a neutral, non-sovereign store of value. In the context of global economic and kinetic war, its utility skyrockets. Gold has performed very well in anticipation of the conflict, but since strikes began, crypto has outperformed.

• Stablecoins are similarly providing real-world utility in real time: Conflict and economic sanctions create immediate demand for permissionless dollar-denominated money. This is a core premise of crypto’s technology.

• Crypto’s functionality through crises increases trust: Each crisis that crypto weathers with functional tech and resilient price action de-risks it in the eyes of both builders and investors.

[TLDR] Crypto is performing because liquidity remains, and the technology is doing exactly what it was designed to do. Crypto is anti-fragile, and performance through crisis strengthens its case.

Until next month,
Devin

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

What the hell happened?

Through the end of 2025, we believed all was not over.

But then it got worse.

What the hell happened?

More in our annual letter here, but this update will be the TLDR version.

[TLDR] Painful though it has been, we still firmly believe that this is a temporary correction amidst the constructive/bull market. We still don’t believe it’s all over.

Though it may take some time, we believe we end 2026 much higher than we entered it.

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Market snapshot

Crypto:

• BTC (-11%)

• ETH (-20%)

• SOL (-17%)

Equities:

• S&P 500 +1%

• NASDAQ +1%

Gold:

• Gold +13%

Macro? Still intact

• Lead signals all look good:

  • Financial conditions continue to ease. The USD is down (-10%) over the last year. Oil is down (-15%). Rates are down (-75bps).

  • Liquidity continues to climb. M2 is turning up. The TGA rebuild is done. Global central banks are leaning on QE. A steeper yield curve makes it more attractive for banks to lend.

• The business cycle acceleration just picked up.

• Goldilocks: We’re seeing more growth and liquidity alongside disinflation.

[TLDR] Nothing about the macro backdrop has us concerned. In fact, we’re in an even better spot than we were at the end of last year.

Then why are prices down? A perfect storm

• Speed & uncertainty: Things are simply moving faster than they ever have (see: AI). When volatility is this high, fear runs rampant. When fear runs rampant, investors de-risk as a result. When the fog rolls in and visibility deteriorates, you slow down the car.

• Narratives: AI took the growth narrative, gold and metals took the debasement narrative - both of which are traditionally tailwinds for crypto. The quantum of capital fueling these sucked all away from crypto.

• Government shutdowns: Two shutdowns (October to November, then briefly in late January) kept the TGA bloated - cash was flowing in, but spending was frozen, resulting in a temporary liquidity drain. The flip side: when spending resumes (which has begun), liquidity returns.

• Rate cuts paused: More patient rhetoric from The Fed came amidst their second pause in this rate cutting cycle.

• Quantum fears: To add to the pile, the discussion of crypto’s quantum risk has re-surfaced.

• Crypto wasn’t the only victim: Software darlings were similarly punished.

[TLDR] A perfect storm of external factors sparked by the accelerating acceleration of AI led to near-universal narrative and market volatility. Crypto, being both further out the risk curve and fully liquid, was among the hardest hit.

Where do we stand today? We’re buyers

• Zoom out: Our time horizon is years, not months. We still see crypto’s path to $100T over the next decade. That’s over a 40x from today.

  • More important (not less) in a fragmenting geopolitical and technological order: In a world where the post-WWII globalist geopolitical order is being re-shaped, currencies are being weaponized, and institutional trust is eroding, such a system - one that promotes values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy - is urgent. Technology and money both want to be free, and the world relentlessly moves in this direction over time. This is crypto.

  • Coordination tech, not just fintech: The most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies - language, writing, the printing press, the internet. Crypto is next: digital scarcity, programmable property rights, non-sovereign economic systems, fully permissionless and composable, without intermediaries or gatekeepers.

  • The application layer of crypto is coming: Crypto is just now at its broadband moment. Reliably negligible costs and near-instant speeds only became a reality in the last couple years. The infrastructure is finally mature enough to support robust applications. And AI may be the iPhone moment - not just because AI agents need crypto rails, but because AI-powered interfaces will abstract away complexity that’s kept mainstream users out. Broadband made the internet usable. The iPhone made it universal. Crypto infrastructure + AI interfaces are the same combination. And when that UX barrier falls, the market it unlocks isn’t a digitized version of today’s products - it’s entirely new categories of economic activity built on individual ownership of what AI can’t replicate: taste, conviction, identity, expertise. The internet created the creator economy and the gig economy from nothing. Crypto + AI creates the next ones, without intermediaries.

  • The debasement trade is still early: Sovereign budgets and debt loads are still unsustainable. Until AI and robotics drive massive productivity (still years away), monetary debasement remains the way out. Gold historically moves first, then BTC follows and outperforms.

  • AI needs crypto: Covered below - but the short version: agents need programmable money, AI needs digital scarcity, and centralized AI needs decentralized technology.

• AI fears are actually crypto tailwinds: The AI fears that spooked the market sell-off are actually long-term tailwinds. The narratives that punished crypto actually need crypto to work.

  • Agents need crypto rails: Agent-based economics requires programmable money. Agent-based activity require permissionless, composable technology. Agent-based identity requires onchain reputation. Today, not a single traditional financial institution is able to service AI agents. Crypto is.

  • AI needs digital scarcity: AI makes the supply of digital things (software products, content, etc.) infinite. Digital scarcity and fixed supply is even more valuable in this world. This is crypto.

  • AI needs decentralization: AI is the single most centralizing force in generations. Compute, data, and model access are concentrating in a handful of companies. Crypto is the counterweight: open, decentralized systems for identity, money, ownership, and compute where control is distributed across millions (and eventually billions). The more AI centralizes power, the stronger the case for crypto.

• We’re missing key ingredients to a prolonged crypto bear market: Every prior crypto bear market coincided with a contraction in global liquidity, rate hikes, and a rollover in the business cycle.

• Oversold: Crypto is the most oversold it’s ever been, at the same time that it’s the most important and necessary it’s ever been.

• Rates should continue to ease: Though the Fed paused, rates are still restrictive. We expect disinflation to continue, all but daring the Fed to continue to cut. Plus, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, though not a fan of QE, is still an advocate of lower rates. The next move should still be to cut.

• Clarity Act: Already passed the House, but stalled in the Senate over the stablecoin yield debate. Scott Bessent is pushing for a spring signing, and the midterms create urgency to pass this before then. If passed, it unblocks one of the key hurdles necessary for crypto’s full evolution. Not only would this remove fear and uncertainty from investors, but more importantly, unleash builders to continue to evolve the technology into its full potential.

• Quantum fears: Risks are real, but they’re not just crypto-specific - quantum threatens literally any system built with digital encryption. Post-quantum cryptography standards already exist, and work is underway at crypto projects. The timeline for a genuine threat is 5-20 years depending on who you ask, but this is a solvable engineering problem, not an existential one.

[TLDR] The market is pricing crypto as though the thesis is dying. This divergence in the short-term is setting up a long-term asymmetry. Nobody is positioned for this.

If you believe in crypto’s value, though it may seem paradoxical, we have a rare setup that we’ve only gotten a handful of times in crypto’s history: extreme fear and apathy, technically the most oversold it’s ever been, amidst a backdrop of incredibly positive tailwinds - both macro and fundamental.

We’re buyers here.

What are we watching? Our leading indicators

• Financial conditions: Looking for continued USD stability (or further weakness) and lower rates.

• Liquidity: The TGA remains $100B+ above target levels. Continued easing of financial conditions will fuel further liquidity, and crypto responds fast.

• Clarity Act progress: As mentioned, Bessent is pushing for a spring signing. There’s a real window before the midterms where passing the bill is possible.

• Narrative shifts: The AI and debasement trade narratives today moved away from crypto. We’re watching for any reversals in their beneficiaries (especially gold and other metals), as well as any fundamental catalysts for crypto.

[TLDR] As of today, the macro backdrop remains incredibly constructive. We’re watching first and foremost for any shifts towards a weaker regime, as well as for other specific catalysts.

Until next month,

Devin

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Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.

We still believe in the opportunity ahead.

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On January 23rd, Comma Partners turned 1.

In earnest, the fund was born several months earlier, and this journey to the heart of Comma’s broader mission - to venture to the frontiers of technology and our humanity, in partnership with those also called to the adventure - began several years before that.

This milestone, in addition to the turn of the calendar into the new year, presents an opportunity to reflect on the path that has brought us here, as well as re-orient our compass as we plot our course for the road ahead.

2025: A year of beginnings and transformation

We set our direction

We articulated who we are. Why we’re here. What we do.

We painted our vision of the future that we believe in and want to see in the world. We shaped our strategy for investing behind this future over the long-term.

We set our aim to be the most trusted partner investing at the frontiers of both our technology and humanity. To compound relationships, wisdom, and capital - for life.

We began and built foundations

We welcomed our first partners - and outside capital - into Comma. We set the rhythm of systems and processes with our supporting teams to get the operational trains running. We put our thesis and investing frameworks into full contact with the world.

We built foundations for the years ahead.

We transformed

We embarked on our journey in 2025. This first chapter is now written.

The numbers are difficult - crypto struggled in 2025. And yet - the nature of an adventure is that not only do we advance - we also transform. The journey works on us as much as we work on it.

Throughout the year, we fielded feedback from the market, from our peers, from our partners, and from advisors.

We learned, and refined our foundations along the way.

The version of Comma - and myself, for that matter - that begins our next chapter is one with greater clarity. One that’s more anchored to what matters at the core of who and what we’re becoming.

My aim: to be as full contact with life as I can muster. Because it’s this full contact that sands and chisels away what separates us from those essential human elements - those pearly, effervescent sources of vitality and meaning that remain, and serve to guide us in the end. And I believe that a world with more access to these core elements is a better world.

I’m finding that in sitting down to write about the last year for Comma, I’m writing a lot about myself. That’s because our years were intertwined - and in exploring how this 2025 chapter has shaped me, I realize that Comma is going through a similar process of becoming. We’re taking the chisel and some sandpaper to get to Comma’s core as well.

In 2025, we set the direction. We began and built foundations. We learned and refined our foundations.

And we transformed.

The big picture: Our vision of the future

We see a world where some of the most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies.

Innovations like language, writing, money, legal codes, democracy, capitalism, the limited liability company, the printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the internet - to name a few - expanded the trajectory and possibilities of humanity in a continual process of progress.

At its core, crypto is a coordination technology. And we believe that crypto is another one of these paradigm-shifting forces - one that will touch many parts of our world, from community and culture to capital.

Crypto gives us new tools to coordinate human, financial, and technological capital more effectively - enabling humans to do what we do best: imagine and paint the vision of a better future, muster resources behind that vision, and act to make it real. By reducing the friction of coordination, crypto amplifies the impact of harnessing all that’s necessary to build together. It blows open the surface area of what’s possible.

And it does so while simultaneously promoting values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy.

These world-changing outcomes don’t just happen overnight. This vision demands a multi-year, multi-decade time horizon.

This long gaze doesn’t just guide where we’re going - it also guides how we respond to the inevitable turbulence along the way.

It is this vision, and this time horizon, that inspire the work we do at Comma.

The strategy: Investing behind this future, over the long-term

We believe crypto is a generational opportunity, at the intersection of two massive waves: revolutionary coordination technology colliding with a macroeconomic endgame demanding liquidity and monetary debasement.

We believe this opportunity has $100 trillion at stake over the coming decades. We are still very early.

Further, we believe crypto is much more than “just” fintech - as many have resorted to stating over the last year. We believe that, much like the internet went, crypto’s application layer will thrive.

We believe that the lion’s share of the value of the $100 trillion crypto opportunity will be created and captured by products built on top of crypto infrastructure.

We live in a world awash with unsound monetary and fiscal policy. Exorbitant spending fuels exorbitant borrowing, which fuels exorbitant money printing, all exacerbated by demographic headwinds.

In the long-term, technological innovation is our way out. All the while, however, the money will keep printing. Crypto - a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system and innovation - is ever more valuable in such a world.

We have the massive benefit, unique to crypto, of being able to own a portfolio of winners across categories and sizes (from pre-seed to mature assets) in a fully-liquid portfolio.

The nature of the collision of an emerging technology with an increasingly noisy macro backdrop in a liquid market is that volatility is made fully visible. Volatility is the cost of this opportunity in front of us.

This volatility pulls most people from the long-term into the short-term, like moths to a flame. This is exactly why we ground ourselves in the long-term trend that we’re here to ride.

We are investing in this future, over the long-term.

This is the wellspring of the patience we draw on to stay focused on the signal (the trend) in the midst of the noise (the chop).

On partnership

I said that my year and Comma’s year were intertwined. In some sense, Comma is an extension of me, but with a key difference: Comma is shaped by you as well.

Comma doesn’t truly exist without you. We are partners in this journey.

The first thing I want to say is that I’m deeply grateful that you’re part of this with me. It’s an honor.

The second thing is that as I read what I’ve just written, I have this creeping sense that much of this sounds quite cliché. Partnership. Gratitude. Honor. Transformation. Words like these get abused until they sound hollow. But I can assure you that they are not hollow for me.

Quite the contrary, these are the themes and sentiments that remain - the core of what makes doing this with you so meaningful. I hope that by sharing a window into my experience of walking alongside you, you feel some of the aliveness and sense of direction that I feel.

To state another cliché, trust is earned. Based solely on our returns this year, we have a ways to go. But throughout, I worked to lead with transparency. With honest communication when the news was less-than-ideal. With the work we’ve done to improve our thesis, strategy, and systems. With the changes to our fee structure to maximize alignment.

You have joined me on a journey to the frontier. Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.

The discomfort of this past year was real. But just as real is the opportunity that brought us here.

My commitment to this work is steadfast - for the long haul, alongside you.

2026: A year of focus, simplicity, momentum, and craft

Our 2025 chapter is written.

We set our direction. We began and built foundations. We transformed.

We got clearer, and more focused on our vision of the future - as well as our strategy for investing behind this future - over the long-term.

Focus. Simplicity. Momentum. Craft.

As we enter 2026, these are the words guiding us.

A friend brought to my attention the fact that this month, we tip into a new Chinese zodiac year - from the year of the snake (transformation, strategy, and calculated movement) to the year of the horse (energy, independence, and disruption).

We’re ready for it.

Our next chapter has just begun. I’m thrilled for what’s to come, and I’m honored to get the opportunity to write it with you.

Here’s to 2026 and beyond.

Onward.

To the frontier.

With gratitude,

Devin

A year of four chapters

Chapter 1: Inception through the inauguration (September 2024 - January 2025)

To fully understand the story of last year, we need to look back to late 2024.

President Trump’s election victory triggered a rapid re-rating of crypto assets as the market digested expectations of a pro-crypto administration. Bitcoin and Solana performed particularly strongly, and select alts outperformed both.

Comma benefited from this alt strength. We were at our max risk allocation given the very supportive forward-looking macro and policy backdrop.

This was the playbook working: macro tailwinds with dispersion favoring alts.

Chapter 2: The inauguration through Liberation Day (January 2025 - early April 2025)

Then the tone shifted.

As the administration articulated a policy strategy that was undeniably austere and protectionist (touting that it was “Main Street’s turn”), the market digested fears of fiscal austerity and burdensome tariffs.

This crescendoed to April 2nd - Liberation Day - with the announcement of a surprisingly heavy-handed tariff plan, triggering the third-largest two-day equity sell-off since 2000. The Fear & Greed Index hit 4 out of 100 - extreme capitulation.

The same dynamics that helped us earlier now hurt us. In this regime of extreme panic, crypto got punished. Bitcoin held up relatively well, dropping (-27%) vs. the S&P’s (-18%) and the NASDAQ’s (-22%) respectively. But crypto’s long tail got hit hard. Dispersion compressed, and our allocation to alts fell further.

This was a crucible moment: hold through the fear or panic-sell and lock in losses?

We stayed invested based on our long-term crypto and macro conviction. We opted to stick with our strategy - the combination of fundamental analysis (own good assets, both blue chips and alts) and macro analysis (decipher the puzzle of economic health and structural risks). We abstained from acting suddenly in response to this bout of idiosyncratic volatility.

Chapter 3: Liberation Day to October 10th (early April 2025 - mid-October 2025)

On April 9th, the administration shifted course, announcing an initial 90-day pause alongside an expressed willingness to negotiate in their work to re-structure the global economic order.

Risk soared once again, and our liquid venture positions that had crushed us on the way down worked as intended as dispersion returned and liquidity moved out the risk curve into higher-beta assets.

Chapter 4: From October 10th through year-end

Then, markets turned once more.

Renewed tariff threats - this time directed at China in response to an announced expansion of their export controls on rare earth elements - sparked another selloff. Risk assets fell steeply. Crypto witnessed one of its most dramatic single-day shocks in its history.

Markets suffered a flash crash, exacerbated by a cascade of leverage liquidations - the largest in crypto history, with almost $20B of liquidations in 24 hours. Several major crypto exchanges and market makers suffered malfunctions in their trading modules (what Binance described as “some technical glitches”) that caused pricing feeds to de-peg from actual market prices, resulting in disorderly market functioning throughout these sudden price movements.

Sentiment has remained in the dumps since. Market structure feels fractured. Many suspect that sizable exchanges and market makers took large hits, resulting in material and sustained selling to bolster operational liquidity, continuing to weigh down prices.

Once again, we stuck with our strategy. Our long-term thesis remains intact - even with the world around it experiencing more volatility than anticipated.

One bright spot from the chaos: while Binance experienced “technical glitches” that caused pricing feeds to de-peg and worsened the cascade, the major decentralized protocols - exchanges, lending platforms, stablecoin systems - were fully functional throughout. In our view, this is one of the strongest proof points yet for crypto infrastructure, stress-tested under extreme conditions. It reinforces our conviction in the application layer.

Analysis: What happened & why

The crypto market really is a tale of two stories: Bitcoin and everything else. Our thesis is built on conviction in the application layer - which for all intents and purposes means alts.

Our conviction in the long-term thesis remains intact.

Geopolitics has been the dominant risk factor. Even when we get the broader macro call right, a single headline can spark the fire of market corrections. In a world more volatile than ever, with a President more volatile than ever, this idiosyncratic risk is real and difficult to model.

Beyond geopolitics, crypto faced several structural headwinds in 2025. Lots of early crypto holders who sat on massive holdings over the past decade took advantage of liquidity that was now deep enough (with ETFs and massive institutions now embedded into crypto markets) to realize their gains. Reaching key psychological price levels - like $100K Bitcoin - exacerbated this. Token unlock schedules from last cycle’s crypto projects created persistent selling pressure. Still-elevated rates continued to keep friction working against long-duration risk assets.

Narratives also shifted. Gold captured the debasement trade, with sovereigns’ gold hoarding further fueled by a global shift away from the American dollar complex as the US firmly stepped into a process of decoupling from the globalist economic paradigm. And AI captured the growth trade.

What we learned, & how we refined

This year prompted intense reflection. Is the strategy still intact? Is any part invalidated? What should be done differently? How did we execute against the plan? What can we learn going forward?

The answers shaped a set of meaningful changes to how we operate.

Restructured our fees for maximum alignment

We aim to be as fully-aligned as possible, across all parts of Comma.

Investors can own Bitcoin passively today, for near-zero cost. We’re here because we believe our thesis and frameworks can compound better than simply holding Bitcoin over the long-term - through two key strategic components:

1. Owning key non-Bitcoin alts that represent highly asymmetric opportunity in crypto’s generational technological revolution.

2. Reducing volatility drag by owning a portfolio of hedges to protect against prolonged bear markets, informed by our macro framework.

We updated our fee structure to better reflect this mandate and align incentives.

Under our new structure, we earn no performance fees unless we accomplish our mandate.

In our view, this is how a fund should be run.

We are excited about this deeper alignment - philosophical and practical - across all parts of Comma. We believe this alignment is core to being world-class (as is our aim).

Embraced our long time horizon & returned to our foundations

One of our key takeaways from this year is that we’re even earlier than we thought when we embarked. This means two things - one that stings, and one silver lining.

I often rely on an analogy to the evolution of the internet - the preceding networked technology wave.

When we launched in late 2024, I believed we were somewhere around 2000 in internet terms - with infrastructure built, and exploding applications on the horizon. But in 2000, we were still several years away from those applications that are synonymous with the application layer of the internet - YouTube, Facebook, the iPhone, etc.

What unlocked the internet’s application layer explosion? Broadband.

Fast, cheap, high-throughput networks that could support richer products and experiences, like photo, video, and social networking. It wasn’t until bandwidth was cheap and abundant that we saw the Cambrian explosion of the internet as we know it.

We believe crypto is just now at its broadband moment. Reliably negligible blockchain costs and near-instant speeds - necessary for richer products and experiences - only became a reality in the last couple of years. We’re now at the point where the infrastructure is finally mature enough to support our application layer thesis.

The market is still yet to re-rate to reflect the value of this opportunity - it’s been slower than we expected.

But now the silver lining - it’s still ahead of us. We see a $100T opportunity. We’re at a crypto market cap of less than $3T today. That’s less than 3% of the way there. The price action of the last year has tested our patience - and reinforced our conviction that we’re squarely in a multi-year, multi-decade accumulation window.

And while the internet’s application layer took years to fully materialize after broadband arrived, we believe crypto’s will compress that timeline. Each technology wave moves faster than the last - built on the shoulders of existing infrastructure, adopted by a population already networked and digitally native. We believe the path from today to crypto’s YouTubes, Facebooks, and iPhones is right around the corner.

The fact that crypto is so liquid - unlike investing in other burgeoning technologies - can drive intense short-term-ism. As a result, we believe that the oft-cited investing cliché that time horizon is one of the few lasting competitive advantages is even more powerful in crypto.

Our patience is being tested, and through this test, we’ve returned to our foundations - we’ve dropped deeper into our long time horizon.

Patience is uncomfortable, but we believe the opportunity on the other side is massive.

Sharpened our alt conviction

Comma’s differentiation lies in conviction in the asymmetric opportunity present in crypto’s application layer - identifying winners early, owning them through volatility, and capturing asymmetric upside when the market rotates. This is one of the sources of value we add beyond passive Bitcoin exposure.

We’re maintaining our ~30% alt allocation as our baseline. We’ll expand over time as the market matures, and may contract in risk-off regimes - but we will remain in the thesis that differentiates us.

In our view, the macro backdrop remains constructive. Despite poor performance last year, nothing has fundamentally changed to invalidate our long-term thesis. We need more time for it to play out.

What would invalidate our long-term thesis?

A continuation of this constructive macro regime, followed by a transition to a negative one, without the continuation of the crypto bull market (and higher prices) first. If macro stays constructive through this year and alts continue to underperform Bitcoin, we will revisit fundamental assumptions about the timing of crypto’s application layer value accrual.

Reinforced our no-leverage commitment

The October 10th flash crash - with $20 billion of levered positions liquidated in 24 hours - further underscores our conviction in avoiding leverage.

With a decades-long opportunity like crypto in front of us, we remain steadfast in doing all we can to eliminate blow-up risk. Leverage adds considerably to that risk. Moments like we witnessed in October - where we continue to hear whispers of large names going extinct due to forced liquidations - are important reminders.

Summary

The thesis remains: crypto is a generational technology and a generational investment opportunity - particularly in the application layer. What’s changed is how we manage risk while this thesis plays out - more systematic execution with tighter discipline, and economics fully aligned to outperformance.

Our job is to learn the right lessons. To build an ever-improving system that compounds. And to ensure that when tailwinds return, we’re well-positioned with our sails at the ready.

2026 outlook

Our base case for 2026 is that it becomes the year that we expected 2025 to be.

Despite facing structural headwinds in 2025, we see tailwinds building. Stablecoin market cap grew throughout 2025 even as prices fell. DeFi protocols worked seamlessly during October’s flash crash while centralized venues had malfunctions. Regulatory clarity is being cemented, with the GENIUS Act passed in July and the CLARITY Act in the Senate after passing in the House. And the infrastructure our thesis depends on - sub-penny fees, near-instant finality - is finally here.

At the same time, a plethora of macro signals are converging. Global liquidity continues to rise. The USD is down 10% from the beginning of 2025, Treasury yields are down more than 0.5%, and oil is down 20%, continuing to ease financial conditions.

Bitcoin - and crypto broadly - is the sole major risk asset not tracking this recovery.

We believe October 10th was a market structure break - the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history ($20B in 24 hours) - that sparked a deviation from the underlying trend, not a regime change. The macro signals point to dramatic recovery. Crypto prices reflect fear.

Importantly, alarm bells like credit spreads and bond volatility are calm. If recession were on the horizon, these alarm bells would be ringing. Real-time inflation measures like Truflation are falling, keeping the Fed engaged in their path towards more neutral (read: lower) rates and preserving the liquidity backdrop.

We see a structural setup heading into 2026 that is much better than the price action suggests.

Unless recession materializes - which is not our base case - the setup for 2026 is more attractive than it was entering 2025. Crypto-specific headwinds are priced in. Macro alignment is strengthening. The gap between price and fundamentals is wide. Either crypto knows something the rest of the market doesn’t, or there’s a gap that will slam closed.

Decision-making under uncertainty requires probabilistic views, not absolute ones. A summary of our current framework for 2026 is as follows, with a more comprehensive version included further below:

• Bear case (20%): Recession, re-inflation, or further geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin $50K-$100K. Alts down more.

• Base case (50%): Modest disinflation, stable conditions, no major shocks. Bitcoin $100K-$150K. Alts outperform.

• Bull case (30%): Liquidity accelerates, USD weakens further, PMIs climb. Bitcoin $150K-$300K. Material alt season.

These frameworks guide positioning - and we’re skewed constructive.

Lead dominos we’re watching

• USD strength/weakness

• 2Y Treasury yield

• 10Y real yield

• Global liquidity

• High-yield credit spreads

Key downside risks

• Geopolitical or economic policy shocks induce further fear and chaos, leading to a risk-off flight to safety.

• Financial conditions tighten, driving liquidity contraction (USD strengthens, inflation accelerates, rates increase, QT/liquidity withdrawals return).

• The real economy doesn’t accelerate (e.g., PMIs stay below 50 and/or contract).

Key upside catalysts

• Geopolitical or economic policy further stabilizes.

• Financial conditions ease further, driving liquidity expansion (USD weakens, inflation approaches 2% target, rates fall, QE/liquidity injections accelerate).

• The real economy accelerates (e.g., PMIs climb into the 50s/towards 60).

Bear case (20%)

A material reversal of current trend across various parts of the economy and markets.

Macro: inflation returns, strong USD, rates rise, liquidity falls

• Global geopolitical and economic policy chaos (repeat or escalation of 2025)

• Re-inflation (inflation above 3%)

• 1 cut or less (Fed funds above 3.25%)

• 10-year yields rise (above 4.5)

• Strong USD (DXY above 100)

• No QE/return to QT

• Liquidity contraction

• Meager economic growth (GDP growth below 2%, PMI declines below 50)

Crypto: deeper bear market (Bitcoin flat-to-down, alts down more)

• The bear market that some expect

• Crypto market cap ~$1.5T-$3T

• Bitcoin flat-to-down (~$50K-$100K)

• Bitcoin dominance up (alts down more)

Base case (50%)

Consistent with the current status quo and consensus.

Macro: modest disinflation, stable USD & rates, modest liquidity increase

• Relative geopolitical and economic stability (improvement over last year)

• Modest disinflation (inflation between 2%-3%)

• 2 cuts (Fed funds to 3.0%-3.25%)

• 10-year yields stable (between 4.0%-4.5%)

• Stable USD (DXY 95-100)

• Modest QE

• Modest liquidity growth

• Modest economic growth (2% GDP growth, PMI between 50-55)

Crypto: more of the same (Bitcoin up modestly, alts up more)

• More of the same

• Crypto market cap ~$3T-$5T

• Bitcoin up near ATHs (~$100K-$150K)

• Bitcoin dominance down modestly (alts up more)

Bull case (30%)

Key factors are already trending this direction (e.g., USD, disinflation, rate cuts, QT ending), but would require acceleration.

Macro: inflation at target, USD & rates continue declines, liquidity climbs

• Geopolitical and economic progress and order (material improvement over last year)

• Material disinflation (inflation at or below 2% target)

• 3 cuts or more (Fed funds below 3.0%)

• 10-year yields fall (below 4.0%)

• Weak USD (DXY below 95)

• QE

• Material liquidity growth

• Economic re-acceleration (GDP growth above 2.5%, PMI above 55)

Crypto: return to bull market (Bitcoin up big, alts up even bigger)

• The true bull market we didn’t get in 2025

• Crypto market cap ~$5T-$10T

• Bitcoin new ATHs (~$150K-$300K)

• Bitcoin dominance down materially (material alt outperformance)

Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

Is it all over?

Vibes are bad. Prices haven’t looked great either. Bears are everywhere. The chop has been brutal.

Were we wrong with our call for a strong Q4? Is it all over?

[TLDR] No, it’s not over.

FUD (fear, uncertainty, & doubt) - sparked by a cocktail of the government shutdown, re-surfarcing geopolitical tensions, and October 10th’s leverage wipeout - is loud and visceral.

But the backdrop remains the same - signs point to easing financial conditions, rising liquidity, and a business cycle upswing to follow - all constructive to crypto.

Market snapshot

Crypto:

• BTC (-4%)

• ETH (-7%)

• SOL (-10%)

Equities:

• S&P 500 +2%

• NASDAQ +5%

Gold:

• Gold +4%

Chop? Brutal

• The chop is real: I mean, just look at the chart - the leading crypto majors experience 15%-25% swings in a matter of weeks.

• Geopolitical fears once again triggered a market wipeout: China announced an expansion of their export controls on rare earth minerals, and President Trump retaliated by threatening an additional 100% tariff and export controls on China.

• This sparked a flash crash on October 10th that has dramatically shaken confidence in crypto: almost $20B in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, the largest liquidation event in crypto history. Almost a month later, sentiment is still very negative.

  • In a one-day window:

    • BTC dropped as much as (-12%)

    • ETH & SOL dropped as much as (-22%)

    • Longer-tail alts fell further, with some smaller assets falling as much as (-50%) to (-70%)

• Yet another trade deal between the US and China was reached.

• Long-term holders are selling, in size: Since July, long-term holders have persistently sold ~300K BTC ($30B+), even as price has ranged and drifted lower, signaling fatigue even among the OGs.

[TLDR] The chop has been brutal, exacerbated by the October 10th flash crash and amplified by resurfacing geopolitical fears.

Vibes are down bad.

Liquidity? Freeing up

• Overall, global liquidity is still slamming ATHs: Still primarily driven by China, and tempered by US liquidity slowing.

• US liquidity hit a snag in October with the government shutdown: Just as the TGA refilled to the $850B target, the government shutdown. The result? An additional ~$200B in liquidity was taken out of the system, tightening US liquidity.

• US funding markets started to experience some stress: This US liquidity tightening sparked some early stress in funding markets (key to the nation’s financial plumbing).

• The Fed announced they will end QT: Starting in December, the Fed will end QT, a tailwind for liquidity on the margin.

• Catalysts are on the horizon for US liquidity to start expanding again: The government shutdown ending, QT ending in December, and funding market stress all pressure the Fed to respond in support of liquidity.

[TLDR] US liquidity has been stagnant. That said, the US is approaching a pivot point that will bring increasing liquidity. This is on top of global liquidity still slamming ATHs.

Macro? Still solid

• The Fed cut rates again: We got another 0.25% rate cut in October.

• Inflation remains a non-issue: Inflation data is lagging as a result of the shutdown, but September’s data showed inflation coming in below expectations.

• Growth surprises will matter more on the margin: Counter to much of the public narrative, inflation signals are still collapsing, while growth remains strong.

• The Fed highlighted uncertainty to a December rate cut decision due to missing data from the government shutdown: The market interpreted this uncertainty hawkishly. We fade the fear.

[TLDR] Despite government shutdown-related uncertainty, macro data still supports a December rate cut in our view, and we think fear is overblown.

At this point, the Fed is more constrained by liquidity strain on funding markets than by inflation. We see more cuts on the way.

So, is it all over?

We’ve been in limbo, with the government shutdown putting a halt to much of the normal course of macro data and Fed decision-making. The market hates uncertainty.

The October 10th flash crash has crypto sentiment shaken to its core. We need a new catalyst to move up again. We think we get it.

[TLDR] No, it’s not over.

Our macro and liquidity frameworks still look constructive 6-12 months out. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we got some this month.

FUD can sound compelling, but it doesn’t mean it’s right.

Our view is that the plan remains the same, just delayed a bit. We remain invested.

Until next month,

Devin

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Goldilocks?

In our view, the story is very similar to last month. Business cycle fundamentals signal strength. Rates are being cut into a resilient economy. Market positioning is still offsides

The only thing that’s different? There’s more fear. Everyone’s concerned about either a frothy bubble bursting or a recession crashing.

[TLDR] We think we’re entering a goldilocks period. Strong growth, stable inflation, increasing liquidity.

Market snapshot

Crypto:

• BTC +6%

• ETH (-6%)

• SOL +4%

Equities:

• S&P 500 +5%

• NASDAQ +5%

Gold:

• Gold +12%

Macro? Strong enough, despite recession fears

• The Fed cut rates: 0.25% rate cut in September, the first cut in 2025. This is a tailwind for the business cycle more broadly, as cheaper capital = more growth.

• Jobs figures stay weak: BLS data delayed due to the government shutdown, but ADP data reflected a loss of 32K private sector jobs in September.

• Inflation stays stable: Still above the Fed’s 2% target, but not reaccelerating as many fear. We’re in an AI investment supercycle, with capex going into productive infrastructure projects (pro-growth), not people’s pockets (inflationary).

• Growth is strong: Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% (vs. 3.3% forecast). Though distorted as a result of mechanical trade calculations impacted by tariff front-running in Q1, growth still stronger than expected. Q3 forecasts also rising, now at 3.8%.

• Leading indicators show strength: Global growth is trending up, financial conditions are still easing, and all is further fueled by nearly 100% of global central banks cutting rates.

[TLDR] Softness in the labor market is driving the Fed to cut, which will continue to pour fuel on the fire. Recession fears are overblown.

Goldilocks.

Liquidity? Still slamming ATHs

• Global liquidity slamming ATHs: Driven primarily by China and a weakening USD, upward momentum continues.

• Gold is leading the way for BTC: Gold is relentlessly punching new ATHs, reaching past $4,000. Gold usually leads BTC price movements by ~6 months.

• TGA fully refilled

  • The Treasury sucked ~$500B of liquidity out of the system since late July as they refilled their bank balance (which they use to pay for government operations) back to their $850B target.

  • Despite this headwind, liquidity nonetheless has continued to climb past ATHs. This headwind is now gone. Bullish liquidity.

• Lowering rates fuels liquidity via credit creation:

  • Lending becomes more attractive for banks as the spread they can earn between what they earn when they lend (longer-term rates) and what they owe on their bank deposits (shorter-term rates) increases.

  • With the Fed lowering short-term rates, it will:

    • Fuel traditional business cycle acceleration, as businesses can borrow to fund growth more cheaply.

    • Unleash liquidity via private credit creation as the yield curve steepens, and banks lend more.

[TLDR] On top of business cycle and growth tailwinds, liquidity keeps climbing, and is now free of headwinds from the TGA refill.

Headlines? Every week

• Morgan Stanley recommends crypto: MS’s Global Investment Committee issued a special memo recommending crypto allocations. MS advises ~16K advisors who manage ~$2T.

• Vanguard (finally) exploring crypto: Under a new CEO, one of the most stalwart crypto holdouts is finally exploring allowing crypto access to clients. Vanguard manages ~$11T of AUM.

The risks? Bubble or recession

Fear is everywhere, but there’s no consensus.

There are fears that we’re in a booming bubble that’s about to burst. There are fears that we’re in a recessionary economy that’s about to crash.

Bubbles rarely burst and recessions rarely crash when everyone is afraid of them.

We think neither are true.

[TLDR] We see business cycle fundamentals signaling strength. Rate cuts into an accelerating economy. Market positioning still offsides.

We think we’re entering a goldilocks period. Strong growth, stable inflation, increasing liquidity.

Until next month,

Devin

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

So far this year, the story has been all fiscal, all the time.

The main drivers of markets broadly and crypto more specifically have come from policy decisions out of the White House.

• Liberation Day tariffs and resulting trade deals

• The OBBBA - our new tax and spending bill

• New pro-crypto regulation - the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, the SEC’s “Project Crypto”

So far, the Fed has stayed put, keeping rates steady since December 2024.

This month, however, all eyes are on the Fed. The monetary side looks as though it is starting to catch up to the fiscal side.

We see a (still) very attractive setup:

• An accelerating economy

• Continued upside surprises

• Easing financial conditions and more liquidity

• Positioning is still offsides

State-of-the-union

For the month of August:

• Crypto:

  • BTC (-6%)

  • ETH +19%

  • SOL +18%

  • COIN50 +3%

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 +3%

  • NASDAQ +1%

• Gold:

  • Gold +5%

The Fed & the economy

August was a very consequential month for the Fed, driven in particular by two key moments:

• Their Jackson Hole Symposium and Powell’s statements made there,

• followed by last week’s jobs report.

Jackson Hole

Throughout the year, inflation fears have been driving the Fed to keep rates at levels that even they have called “restrictive.”

Since March, core CPI has ticked up slightly from ~2.8% to ~3.1% in July.

All the while, the debate has been raging over whether Liberation Day tariffs will result in materially sustained inflation.

These fears, and the fact that inflation has remained above their 2% target have resulted in the Fed opting to “wait and see.”

Enter Powell at Jackson Hole.

On August 22nd in his Jackson Hole address, Powell articulated what econ and crypto Twitter have deemed the “Jackson Hole pivot,” from a primary focus on inflation fears to a primary focus on downside risks to the labor market.

Remember that the Fed has two prongs to its mandate: low and stable inflation, and maximum employment.

Powell highlighted several important things:

• On the margin, downside risks to employment are rising

• That the shifting balance of risks “may warrant adjusting policy”

• That their base case is that the tariff impact on inflation will be short-lived

The market took this shift in narrative as a signal that rate cuts are here.

August’s labor market report

This stated shift in focus to leaning towards supporting the labor market was followed by what is by any measure a very weak set of data.

Job openings came in well below expectations and prior figures were revised dramatically down.

This resulted in June showing a first net loss in jobs since 2020.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.

Then, today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm payroll job additions for the 12-month period ending March 2025 down by -911,000 jobs - the largest negative revision on record.

As a result, the market is now expecting a 96% chance of a rate cut on September 17th, with 75bps and 125bps of total cuts priced in through the end of the year and 2026 respectively.

From Darius Dale & 42Macro:

Thursday’s August inflation report will be an important piece of this rates puzzle. But even a slightly worsening inflation picture shouldn’t prevent the Fed from cutting next week.

Growth vs. inflation

All the attention recently has been on inflation re-accelerating.

There’s not enough focus on growth re-accelerating - in the US and in Europe.

The market is paying attention to the wrong thing.

Even if we get a slightly increasing inflation print on Thursday, I believe the inflation story is largely behind us, and the re-accelerating growth story is really the one we should be paying attention to.

On the margin, the story in the economy right now should be about re-accelerating growth.

In fact, Truflation is showing inflation coming back down, once again below 2%.

Growth

With such weak jobs data, you might be asking - does this mean we’re heading into a recession? Is downside risk also rising?

The short answer?

I don’t believe so.

Polymarket doesn’t think so either.

The Atlanta Fed raised stepped up their Q3 GDP forecast to 3%.

Remember, Q2 GDP came in at 3.3%, well above estimates.

Consumer spending is ramping and surprising to the upside as well.

August PMIs & new orders are climbing in both the manufacturing & services sectors.

Looking ahead, things are looking good. Lower rates will support the business cycle as well.

This does not look like an economy in recession to me.

Financial conditions & liquidity

Your monthly reminder: liquidity is the most significant signal we look to for crypto performance over the medium- and long-term

And financial conditions (rates, strength of the USD, oil) are the main signal to watch for liquidity growth - easing in these factors (down, down, down respectively) frees up capital liquidity to flow to more productive, risk-seeking outlets.

The main driver of financial conditions for the first half of the year were the weakening USD and sliding oil prices. Rates stayed range-bound.

Now, we have the inverse. Rates are coming down, and the USD and oil are staying muted.

The net effect of both of these scenarios? A gigantic (even further) easing of financial conditions throughout the rest of the year, boosting liquidity, and providing a strong tailwind for liquidity-sensitive assets (like crypto).

The big move: rates

The 10-year is approaching 4% again for the first time since Liberation Day.

The 30-year is retreating from testing 5%.

Ranging lower: the USD & oil

The USD is ranging lower beneath 100, hitting lower highs.

Oil is also ranging lower.

The net effect of all this?

Easing financial conditions.

What comes next?

Liquidity

Liquidity has already shot higher throughout the year, and BTC has yet to fully price this in.

As financial conditions ease further, liquidity will continue to increase, extending the runway and fueling crypto and risk assets further.

One headwind to rising liquidity is the continued rebuild of the Treasury General Account balance at the Fed.

I’ll spare you the technical macro nerd details, but think of it like the government’s bank account cash balance. The government used it up earlier this year while they were negotiating the debt ceiling increase (they had to pay for things from actual cash instead of just taking out more debt - imagine that!), and now are rebuilding it. This is a negative impulse to liquidity because it requires taking dollars out of circulation to park them in the bank.

They’ve already taken it up from ~$300B to ~$700B, and plan to get it back to ~$850B. So, mostly done, but a bit further to go.

I’m not too concerned about this, however, given what we just talked about regarding easing financial conditions - plus, China is really starting to print.

Earlier this year, we highlighted that the whole world needed to print money to juice their economies (which were struggling even more than ours at the time), but were hesitant to do so given the strength of the USD, since printing a bunch of money would further weaken their currency against an already-strong USD.

But the weakening in the USD that we’ve seen this year unleashes more printing around the globe.

A (still) very attractive setup

If all this data proves true, here’s what we see:

• An accelerating economy

• Continued upside surprises

• Easing financial conditions and more liquidity

• Positioning is still offsides

This leads to a (still) very attractive setup in our view.

An accelerating economy

Easing financial conditions and continued upside surprises

More liquidity

Positioning is still offsides

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

A mixed bag of headlines recently, but in our view, dips are still for buying.

State-of-the-union

For the month of July:

• Crypto:

  • BTC +7%

  • ETH +48%

  • SOL +10%

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 +2%

  • NASDAQ +2%

• Gold:

  • Gold (-1%)

Regulation? Dreamy

A year ago, we would have never imagined the regulatory tailwinds we are now being graced with.

The GENIUS Act (stablecoin bill) was passed into law.

The CLARITY Act (non-stablecoin crypto bill) passed by the House, sent to the Senate, with strong support.

SEC chair Paul Atkins announced Project Crypto - a movement to “modernize the securities rules and regulations to enable America’s financial markets to move on-chain.”

166 page White House crypto report released, putting meat on the bones of President Trump’s January executive order.

A few highlights:

• Protect open public blockchains & self-custody: safeguard open public blockchains and every American’s right to self-custody

• Non-discriminatory bank access: require banks and payments networks to provide nondiscriminatory access

• Promote USD stablecoins: implement GENIUS Act to standardize and onshore issuers

• Ban CBDC: agencies are prohibited from establishing/issuing/promoting a CBDC

• Presidential Working Group deadline: 180 days to deliver coordinated regulatory + legislative recommendations

• Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve under Treasury + broader Digital Asset Stockpile to bolster national balance sheet strength

• Clean up and streamline Tax and reporting cleanup: carry cost basis across exchange transfers, clarify business-receipt reporting, and align IRS–FinCEN threshold

Scott Bessent is calling for the Golden Age of Crypto.

Trump is preparing an executive order to allow 401K plans to invest in alternatives, including crypto.

It’s simple - the Trump administration is delivering on their promises.

This further shrinks the “left tail” risk of crypto as a sector. Very structurally bullish.

Who knew regulation could be dreamy?

Macro? Tepid

The last week has brought some soft macro data and headlines, which cooled things off across both traditional and crypto markets.

These sorts of dips are to be expected, especially as we saw speculative activity heat up.

Speculative leverage in the system drives fragility

Crypto open interest (a good marker for leveraged trading) climbed above $87B on July 28th. This marked the highest level in the last year - higher even than last November/December in the wake of the rapid gains after Trump’s election victory.

This leverage adds fragility to the structure of the market, leaving it vulnerable to swift corrections sparked by small moves that get exacerbated by forced selling to cover margin for those leveraged positions.

Case and point, as the last week brought

• news that tariffs would go live on August 1st as deadlines wouldn’t be extended,

• followed by the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, accompanied by what some would categorize as “hawkish” commentary,

• weak jobs data,

  • July non-farm payrolls coming in at +73K, below forecasts of +110K

  • Unemployment rate up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% month prior

• and even weaker downward revisions for past months,

  • May revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000

  • June revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000),

open interest fell ~17%, now right around $72B. Still elevated, but moderated a bit.

This exacerbated downward price movements, with

• BTC down (-6%)

• ETH down (-17%)

• and SOL down (-19%)

before bouncing into the start of this week.

A technical detour into the nuances of our weakening labor market

Securing the border has resulted in an artificially low unemployment rate despite the weak jobs numbers.

The labor force participation rate has fallen as a result of the slowdown in immigration. This is masking the weakness in the labor market by mechanically driving down the unemployment rate.

This analysis is interesting. If you hold this labor force participation rate variable constant, the recent jobs numbers would instead reveal quite a dramatic increase in unemployment rate - 4.9% vs. the official 4.2% reading.

These dramatic revisions led to Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, adding to last week’s headline volatility.

He may have a point here. The quality of the data has been deteriorating for a while, with less actual data collected, and more of it estimated.

This is especially striking for inflation data. We used to have upwards of 90% of the data collected. We’re now dropping towards 60%.

This is why Truflation is my much preferred source for inflation data, even if it is slightly detached from the official CPI metrics that policymakers use in their decision-making process.

I’ll take the better signal, based on the assumption that official lagging metrics will eventually catch up.

The business cycle is yet to take off

The manufacturing PMI came in at 48, down from 49 last month, and below expectations of 49.5.

The services PMI came in at 50.1, down from 50.8 last month, and below expectations of 51.5.

As we’ve hit on for a while now, these metrics are a key driver of the “real” economy, and we’ve been expecting these to pick up.

We still have tailwinds for the business cycle in the form of the easing economic conditions that we’ve been seeing since Q2, in combination with positive growth surprises relative to inflation.

These still point towards an acceleration in these business cycle metrics, but we’re simply not seeing this - yet.

We’ll keep watching for how this unfolds. For now, we’re not convinced that this point of view has been invalidated - just delayed.

Another technical detour into the nuances of the ISM PMI vs. the S&P Global PMI

RealVision just released a great report on the differences between the ISM and S&P Global PMIs.

Much of the attention goes to the ISM PMIs - it’s the legacy metric (they’ve published their manufacturing PMI since the 1940s, while S&P launched in the 2000s). So when the ISM PMI headlines are weak like they were in the last week, they grab all the attention.

Less reported, however, is that the S&P PMI composite increased from 52.9 in June to 55.1 in July.

So, which is more accurate?

RealVision calculated that the S&P PMI has much better fit with other metrics of real business activity.

The S&P survey focuses more on domestic activity (vs. the ISM’s more global purview), and has a broader, more representative set of businesses and sectors.

Color me convinced that the S&P PMI is a better metric to be looking at. It has better representation of the domestic economy, and maps more closely to other metrics we see elsewhere - on-the-ground business activity, as well as the easing of financial conditions we’ve been tracking.

For now, our point of view is still that things will pick up - that the ISM PMIs will re-rate in line with S&P’s.

Not only that, but the softer data represented in the jobs report and ISM PMIs actually gives the Fed stronger evidence that they should in fact cut rates, which would work to bring this acceleration to life.

Evidence for easing

While the Fed didn’t change rates, 2 of the 7 Fed Governors dissented for the first time in over 30 years.

We then had Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announce her resignation, giving Trump the ability to nominate someone to fill the spot.

In addition, Powell’s Fed Chair position ends next May, and Trump also gets to nominate the next Chair.

Trump is putting the pressure on.

Remember this?

Polymarket odds of a September rate cut are above 80%.

All signs point to further easing.

Strong crypto fundamentals

In July, we saw crypto break out, and whispers of alt season, with ETH leading the charge.

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s % share of total crypto market cap) drop from ~65% to testing 60% - meaning alts started outperforming BTC.

On July 24th-25th, Galaxy announced that it sold 80,000 BTC (over $9 billion) into the market. The price only dropped ~3%, before quickly recovering.

BTC’s hash rate - the measure of the coordinated computational power securing the network - hit all-time highs. BTC’s hash rate touched 1 zettahash per second - to put this in context, this is roughly 100,000x more compute than the entire infrastructure of the Mag 7 combined.

The higher the hash rate, the higher the cost and difficulty of hacking the network.

Plus, the market is still offsides.

Corrections - sometimes sharp, and often short - are to be expected in crypto, especially after things move up as fast as they did for most of the month of July, and especially with the Trump administration’s bold and volatile style of leadership.

Let’s not forget, BTC climbed to all-time highs in July, touching above $123K.

The game is still on

We’re still holding strong with our view that the rest of the year looks quite good.

Policymakers are running it hot. Liquidity is rising. Tariffs aren’t as inflationary as feared. The business cycle should still heat up.

This is a setup that doesn’t come around often. Until something clearly and materially changes, we stay fully invested to ride this wave.

Where are we in the crypto cycle?

🟢 Overall, I’d still give us a green light.

None of the 6 technical/valuation metrics below are in the warning zone.

Bitcoin dominance

Currently: ~61%

Warning zone: ~45%-50% (bottomed ~40% last cycle)

MVRV & Z-score

MVRV

Currently: ~2.2

Warning zone: ~3-3.5 (topped ~3.9 last cycle)

MVRV Z-score

Currently: ~2.5

Warning zone: ~6-7 (topped ~7.5 last cycle)

NUPL

Currently: ~0.55

Warning zone: ~0.6-0.7 (topped ~0.75 last cycle)

Puell multiple

Currently: ~1.21

Warning zone: ~2 (topped ~3.25 last cycle)

Pi cycle top indicator

Currently: not near a cross

Warning zone: when blue line approaches purple line

Some things I’ve been thinking about

Also all on Farcaster

• The most important mission: venture to the frontier of technology & the frontier of humanity at the same time

• We will have billions of robots within the next few decades

• We should remove window shades on planes

• There’s nothing more American than crypto

• The spiritual equivalent of volatility drag is when your sense of self spikes and crashes

• Update on early tariff takes

• Energy x intelligence x soul = value

Interesting reads, watches, listens

punk6529 on the freedom to transact

punk6529 on 72,000 hours

Ariana Grande in the studio

Clifford Sosin on the wealth of everyday

Raoul Pal on the crypto playbook

thiccy on the jackpot age

Tyler Neville on the philosopher builder

David Senra on the lessons of history

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The spark that ignited the American Revolution was only possible because of it.

Had 18th-century Britain operated a fiat monetary system, we likely wouldn't be here.

No revolution. No America.

Because Britain’s currency was backed by gold, to fund its imperial largesse, it had to raise gold that it didn’t have - and to do that, it had to tax.

That overt burden lit the fuse of revolution. In subjecting the colonies to taxation without representation to fund conquests that they didn’t benefit from, Britain provoked a movement that ended in the birth of the United States of America.

Had it run on fiat - money created out of thin air by decree, backed solely by government’s “faith and credit” - Britain could have quietly printed its way to its ambitions, much like world powers do today.

Fiat enables a more sinister, diffuse, and invisible tool of control: money-printing.

Power imposed with a whisper instead of a shout.

No shout, no revolution.

Hard money made the imposition of power unmistakable - and ultimately, unbearable. It forced visible actions that provoked humanity’s natural check on power, and inspired a courageous stand for liberty and sovereignty.

That stand became the United States of America.

The ultimate irony?

The very country born from that stand would go on to later abandon sound money and lead the world into fiat - undermining the natural check on power that once gave it life.

That quiet imposition of fiat - sinister and invisible in its dilution of wealth and freedom - has been inflicted on us for decades.

The good news?

A generational revolution is gaining steam.

We're on our way back - to newer, better forms of sound money, and to even deeper liberty and sovereignty.

The better news?

These sounder assets will bring wealth to those who own them.

The best news?

We don't even have to go to war.

All we have to do is choose them.

There’s nothing more American than crypto.

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

What a year it’s been so far.

Sometimes, it feels like nothing ever happens. Other times it feels like everything happens at once.

2025 feels like the latter.

Try to remember back to just after the new year, and what you thought 2025 was going to be like.

Hard to believe, huh?

I think we’re set up for an incredibly strong remainder of the year.

We’ve cemented this paradigm shift from austerity to acceleration, and the cherry on top is that macro is looking even stronger.

Dips are still for buying.

State-of-the-union

For the month of June:

• Crypto:

  • BTC +3%

  • ETH (-1%)

  • SOL (-1%)

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 +5%

  • NASDAQ +7%

• Gold:

  • Gold +0%

Macro vs. micro

June was a month of macro vs. micro.

Macro’s setup is much like you and I explored last month. Strong and improving. We’ll get into the latest in a bit.

And yet June in many ways felt like echoes of April. Idiosyncratic and dramatic headlines that drove chop and volatility.

Tariffs. Israel bombing Iran. Iran bombing Israel. The US bombing Iran. A ceasefire to the “12-day war.”

You got to give it to him, DJT has a thing for theatrical storytelling and branding. He knows how to make a headline. Liberation Day. Operation Midnight Hammer. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

What can we learn from this?

First, time horizon matters.

The answer to what we can learn, and what actions are the right ones to take, depend greatly on what time horizon you’re playing with.

If you’re optimizing for daily or weekly wins, the micro idiosyncrasies matter much more.

Second, the craft is in evaluating what graduates from micro to macro.

The challenge? Properly determining which events cause ripples that reverberate beyond the immediate moment to drive reality over longer timescales.

Let’s look at the conflict in Iran as an example. If these tensions were to escalate into a protracted conflict, drawing in more death, destruction, fear, uncertainty, resources, nation-states, or the like - then that would be micro turning into macro, and a real factor looking out to and through the end of the year.

For us here at Comma, with a long, multi-year and multi-decade mission, we’re learning it’s rarely a good idea to act based on fears that arise from moment-to-moment headlines of geopolitics.

We’re learning that it’s a better strategy for us to exhibit patience beyond what the immediate discomfort - or even downright fear - arising from these headlines would counsel in the moment.

We believe in a long-term vision for what crypto and its technology can do in the world.

We also believe in the impacts of the macro environment on this long-term vision, and the insight we can gain from its signals.

That said, we position for the former first and foremost, and take guidance from macro second. Not the other way around.

And like I said, this doesn’t make it easy. Or simple, for that matter. But this is the craft that we are honing. Pulling signal from noise, macro from micro, and keeping the long-term vision locked in our sights, while navigating through pitfalls, obstacles, catalysts, and accelerants in the nearer-term along the way.

And here, you get a glimpse of what we’re seeing and thinking about along the way.

Macro looks great, and Trump is pouring fuel on the fire

Let’s take a look at how macro’s doing.

Nothing stops this train: policy has firmly shifted from austerity to acceleration

Trump (basically):

We will grow our way out of it all, damnit. Don’t get in my way.

On July 4th, the OBBBA was officially signed into law, and with it:

• An additional $5T in debt issuance over the coming years

• A projected $2.5T annual deficit - up from ~$1.8T last year and more than double 2019’s ~$1.0T - even before accounting for higher interest costs as we continue to issue new and more debt

As a result, the US’s prospects for issuing debt to fund this ever-larger largesse are deteriorating. More supply with the same (and maybe even less) demand means more expensive debt. This means even larger deficits, more debt supply, and even more expensive debt. This is the debt death spiral.

This means Scott Bessent and the US Treasury need ways to reign in the cost of their debt - and find new demand - fast.

How are they doing this?

• Issuing more short-term (and less long-term) debt: the government has more control of short-term rates as a result of policy decisions than longer-term rates, which are more market-based

• Working to pass the GENIUS Act to formalize regulation and unleash stablecoin proliferation: under the regulatory framework, every stablecoin has to be backed 100% by US dollars, which increases demand for short-term US debt

• Working to lower or eliminate the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) requirement on banks: this would free up more cash for them to buy more short-term US debt, increasing demand

• Pressuring the Fed to cut rates to decrease the cost of debt and fuel economic growth: this would lower interest costs for the government, shrink the deficit, and lower the debt-to-GDP ratio, thus making US debt more attractive, and increasing demand

This all means easier financial conditions, and more liquidity - on top of a macro setup that’s already very strong.

Liquidity is rising

A bullish cocktail: inflation is lower than feared, and growth isn’t as stagnant as feared

The USD is dropping, and the whole world wants it even weaker

Trump and Bessent want a weaker USD to boost exports and domestic manufacturing, as well as to bolster markets.

The rest of the world wants a weaker USD so that they can stimulate to support their own struggling economies.

The USD is already down ~11% YTD, and it could very well keep going, especially if inflation stays muted or the Fed lowers rates.

The business cycle is coiled like a spring, and heating up

The more the USD weakens, the longer the business cycle has to run.

Remember - as we covered in April’s update, GMI’s research has shown us that financial conditions (a composite of the strength of the USD, oil prices, and rates) drive asset prices 6-9 months later.

And based on where we stand today, we’re already set up for the business cycle to extend into 2026 once it really heats up.

From GMI, regarding the USD weakening:

And this, much like what we saw back in 1987, is what will push the ISM higher – likely into Q2 of 2026, as things stand right now.

The more the dollar and rates come down today, the more room there is for the business cycle to extend further into next year.

The business cycle drives everything, but it drives BTC first.

Alts will have their time as well - typically on a ~3-month lag after BTC.

And now, we’re seeing alts at dramatically oversold levels. We’re prepped for a swift move in our view - all we need is one catalyst. Maybe it’s the Fed cutting. Or the tariff agreements finally reaching finality. Or Trump naming his next Fed chair appointee.

Whatever it is, we’re coiled like a spring.

On top of all this, positioning is still offsides

As we said last month, there’s a massive disconnect between hard and soft data.

The market is still offsides relative to what the hard data is telling us.

Don’t fight the Fed (or the Treasury)

There’s a maxim that you should never fight the Fed.

It’s becoming clear that you shouldn’t fight the Treasury either.

At this point in time, they’re the ones doing more to ease financial conditions and inject more liquidity into the system to fund this runaway fiscal situation.

On top of this, we have a scenario where the Fed has less and less reason to keep rates at levels that they themselves have deemed “restrictive.”

We could have a scenario where we get dramatic monetary dovishness as well - with rates coming down, the SLR lowered (or even eliminated), and QT fully halted.

The answer: real assets + innovation

To recap:

• We have a fiscal situation with only one way out: growth

• We have a strong macro backdrop with the hard data that leads assets (particularly crypto) improving

• We have positioning still offsides as soft data and FUD is clouding investors’ judgement

• We have monetary policy in a place that could accelerate into easing

Don’t fight it.

Nothing stops this train.

It’s time to take the hint.

It’s time to own crypto.

It’s time for Comma.

Where are we in the crypto cycle?

🟢 Overall, I’d still give us a green light.

None of the 6 technical/valuation metrics below are in the warning zone.

Bitcoin dominance

Currently: ~64%

Warning zone: ~45%-50% (bottomed ~40% last cycle)

MVRV & Z-score

MVRV

Currently: ~2.2

Warning zone: ~3-3.5 (topped ~3.9 last cycle)

MVRV Z-score

Currently: ~2.5

Warning zone: ~6-7 (topped ~7.5 last cycle)

NUPL

Currently: ~0.55

Warning zone: ~0.6-0.7 (topped ~0.75 last cycle)

Puell multiple

Currently: ~1.32

Warning zone: ~2 (topped ~3.25 last cycle)

Pi cycle top indicator

Currently: not near a cross

Warning zone: when blue line approaches purple line

Some things I’ve been thinking about

Also all on Farcaster

• Sound money is why the USA exists today

• Bring back 2014 Apple

• Good, hard money, free markets, and relentless innovation

• There are two ways to play the game

• Nothing stops this train

Interesting reads, watches, listens

Raoul Pal on WTF is going on

How Amsterdam invented capitalism

SG Lewis with a groovy set

Desiderata by Max Ehrmann

Brad Gerstner on Invest America

Founders Podcast on Michele Ferrero

We’re still early

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

Greetings frontierspeople.

May’s update for Comma Partners is a big one. The most important takeaway?

Our paradigm has shifted.

In April, the US administration (I’m tired of writing “Trump”) had its hands on the wheel and was steering us toward a full-scale global reordering - political, economic, cultural.

Then, bond yields spiked and put the pressure on.

The administration then made a hard pivot. Negotiations were to commence. Deals were to be struck.

Heading into May, the question was whether that softer stance would stick.

Now we know.

Not only have we been told that the administration is seeking to strike trade deals, but we’ve also seen that - as Lyn Alden says - nothing stops this train.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (the “OBBBA”), and the narrative shift of the administration around it - from global trade reciprocity and DOGE efficiencies to fueling growth in order to outpace increased budget deficits - cemented it.

This administration has been very transparent about the actions it has taken. It’s prudent to listen to what they’re saying.

And now, they’re saying it’s time to run it hot.

(By the way, I wrote all the above before today’s fiery crash out between Trump and Elon, which led to this:

My quick take? Elon is sounding alarms about everything we’re about to discuss below, and Mr. Trump isn’t going down without a fight.

Volatility is the name of the game in today’s world - noisier than ever. So, let’s try to zoom out, think longer-term, and pull some signal from this cacophony, shall we?

Dips are for buying.)

State-of-the-union

For the month of May:

• Crypto:

  • BTC +11%

  • ETH +41%

  • SOL +6%

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 +5%

  • NASDAQ +7%

• Gold:

  • Gold +1%

Narrative shift

From austerity...

Early in the administration, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear: the priority was getting the 10-year yield down.

Their priority was clear - lower borrowing costs for the mounting US debt, most pressingly for the ~$10T (trillion, with a “t”) to be issued throughout 2025.

Their tools?

Tariffs + increased government efficiency.

Re-balance global trade imbalances. Re-onshore manufacturing. Spark a boom for Main Street. Cut “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Lower yields along the way.

I went looking for one or two posts to prove the point and ended up falling down the Bessent rabbit hole.

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1907548667168407972

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1909663435786199458

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1910000578198986822

It was “Main Street’s turn.”

And I’ll spare you the DOGE examples. We’ve all seen plenty of those.

...to acceleration

Initially, yields did the administration’s bidding, with the 10-year dropping below 4.0%.

But then, they rebounded sharply, rising to ~4.5%, where the administration started pivoting.

What can we learn from this?

• The initial market reaction was recession fear, not policy confidence

• Investors fled US assets across the board - stocks, bonds, and the dollar all down in lockstep

• 4.5% on the 10-year seems to be the pain point

• Bond vigilantes are doing their job - and they appear to be the market’s primary policy check

So, how did the administration pivot?

“Pauses” on Liberation Day tariffs. Negotiations to strike trade deals.

Those were just the appetizers.

The main course?

The OBBBA.

A projected $2.5T annual deficit - up from ~$1.8T last year and more than double 2019’s ~$1.0T - even before accounting for higher interest costs as we continue to issue new and more debt.

One Big, Beautiful Bill to lock in acceleration over austerity. A shift to running it hot.

Take a look.

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1924110227168690298

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1925910800394232082

There is the potential growth of the debt, but what’s more important is that we grow the economy faster.

We are going to grow the GDP faster than the debt grows...

In fact, we no longer even have a choice.

Oh, and check this out.

https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1925967578540781743

It’s time to take the hint.

If there were ever a time to try to change course, it was this year

A President elected with a very clear mandate to back Main Street.

Record-low unemployment.

High Fed rates - with plenty of room to cut - and a Fed practically begging for an excuse, calling current rates “restrictive.”

An economy that’s ~80% services, softening the blow from goods-based tariffs.

Our generation’s greatest entrepreneur running a Department of Government Efficiency.

And we still couldn’t get it done.

So, truly, nothing stops this train.

And the can gets kicked down the road.

Fiscal dominance x The Everything Code x Paradigm C

Three concepts are colliding.

Fiscal dominance (à la Lyn Alden), The Everything Code (à la Raoul Pal), and Paradigm C (à la Darius Dale).

What’s the story here?

• Aging demographics → shrinking workforce

• Rising fiscal deficits & debt loads to plug the productivity gap

• Rising interest rates & interest payments as fiscal health deteriorates and the market demands compensation for increased risk

• Bond holders & political populism restrict austerity attempts

• Austerity would crush asset prices → shrink capital gains → reduce tax receipts → spiral us deeper

• The endgame? Manufacture liquidity to keep it all running

This = fiscal policy dominance.

Fiscal needs overpower the Fed. Deficits set the agenda now - not rates.

This = The Everything Code.

Demographics drive macro. Aging populations slow growth, and governments step in to fill the gap with new liquidity.

This = Paradigm C.

• Paradigm A: a bloated, K-shaped economy propped up by easy money and government spending - disproportionately benefiting the top part of the K

• Paradigm B: a shift to a more balanced, E-shaped economy - with private sector output taking the lead

• Paradigm C: all the largesse of Paradigm A, plus more tax cuts and spending that largely benefit the top part of the K

If there are three ways out of this bind - cut, grow, or print our way out of it, then:

• Paradigm A was status quo when this administration entered office (a mix of attempted growth and undeniable printing)

• Paradigm B was the initial goal (cut spending, restore discipline, rebalance the economy) - but the bond market wouldn’t allow it

• Paradigm C is where we’re headed now after this pivot from austerity to acceleration (more growth, more deficits, more printing) - Paradigm A on steroids

The answer: real assets + innovation

Own the assets that can’t be printed - and are building the future.

Non-sovereign, fixed-supply assets driving innovation.

Stocks (selectively). Gold. Crypto.

We said it last month. We still believe it.

I still hold the belief that each time we’re faced with sudden, dramatic change that’s imposed by someone that’s in charge, the world moves one step closer to realizing the value of a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system that exists outside of our traditional ones.

How are markets responding?

Let’s take a look at things since April 1st.

Stocks and gold up.

Crypto up more.

Just think about how crazy that is. This includes the dramatic drawdowns in the aftermath of Liberation Day.

Peak (April 2nd) to trough (April 7th):

• (-12%) for the S&P 500

• (-16%) for the NASDAQ

• (-15%) for BTC

• (-25%) for ETH & SOL

That means trough (April 7th) to June 4th (the day before the Elon and Trump crash out):

• +19% for the S&P 500

• +28% for the NASDAQ

• +37% for BTC

• +76% for ETH

• +54% for SOL

The dollar’s down.

Yields are up.

Oil is down.

Despite volatility, markets have performed exceptionally well.

Even adjusted for volatility, BTC has outpaced the S&P 500 year-to-date - by a lot.

And, financial conditions have eased - setting us up for the months to come.

What do we make of this?

The strength in markets is happening against a backdrop of terrible sentiment.

Vibes are off.

We have a clear disconnect between “soft” and “hard” data.

First thing to look at is market performance - which we’ve covered.

Next, macro data.

Job openings are strong. Q2 GDP estimates are being revised up. Inflation continues to cool.

Soft data (vibes) lags hard data
⬇️
Hard data drives soft data (vibes)
⬇️
Soft data (vibes) shapes narratives
⬇️
Trump drives narratives, so soft data (vibes) is driving more and more behavior in the short-term, more distracting
⬇️
Disproportionate value to following hard data

So, what should we do?

Follow hard data.

And all this is happening with rates still elevated. At these levels, rates are less of a factor than expected. Markets have been strong, and bond volatility/distress as measured by the MOVE index is stable after coming down from touching 140 after Liberation Day.

(This is even more true after the drama we’re seeing play out today between Elon and Trump - pouring even more noisy fuel on the cacophonous fire of fearful narratives and bad vibes.)

What’s old is new again?

The ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) experiment has been a wholly 21st century phenomenon.

From 1975 to 2000, the average Fed Funds rate was ~7.5%

Looking at this chart, you’d think rates are crazy high.

But looking at this chart, you’d see that rates are historically low.

We should expect rates to stay higher for longer.

The market is telling us that rates around current levels aren’t an issue.

At higher levels? Perhaps.

And we saw at the end of last year that the Fed cutting front end rates had the opposite effect on the long end.

The economy remains strong, and the Fed knows cutting could stoke inflation concerns (driving long yields higher) - so we should expect the Fed to sit nice and comfy until they’re undeniably forced to step in.

Rates at these levels don’t seem to be a problem for the market.

But who are they a problem for?

The US government, with their massive debt load (~$37T) and interest payments (over $1B annually) larger than our defense budget. And keep in mind that this is all sitting at below-market rates (~3.5% on average), which will reset higher as we roll forward, further exacerbating the problem.

This is the ticking time bomb. Every dollar of new debt and every tick up in rates shortens the fuse.

We’ve kicked the can down the road. And it will get worse.

In the long run, this is a massive problem.

In the short run? They’ll simply print more money, and hope that growth and innovation buy more time.

It’s time to take the hint

Idiosyncratic tariff risks remain. So do the risks tied to the personalities in charge. (Oh, and keep an eye out for capital controls next...a topic for another day.)

Still, we know where pressure gets too intense - above 4.5% on the 10-year or 140 on the MOVE index.

And, the economy is holding strong.

Plus, they’ve told us what they’re going to do.

They’ve told us they’re shifting from austerity to acceleration.

Nothing stops this train.

It’s time to take the hint.

It’s time to own the assets that can’t be printed - and are building the future.

It’s time to own crypto.

It’s time for Comma.

Where are we in the crypto cycle?

🟢 Overall, I’d still give us a green light.

None of the 6 technical/valuation metrics below are in the warning zone.

Bitcoin dominance

Currently: ~63%

Warning zone: ~45%-50% (bottomed ~40% last cycle)

MVRV & Z-score

MVRV

Currently: ~2.2

Warning zone: ~3-3.5 (topped ~3.9 last cycle)

MVRV Z-score

Currently: ~2.5

Warning zone: ~6-7 (topped ~7.5 last cycle)

NUPL

Currently: ~0.55

Warning zone: ~0.6-0.7 (topped ~0.75 last cycle)

Puell multiple

Currently: ~1.1

Warning zone: ~2 (topped ~3.25 last cycle)

Pi cycle top indicator

Currently: not near a cross

Warning zone: when blue line approaches purple line

Some things I’ve been thinking about

Also all on Farcaster

• Crypto breaks down geographical monopolies in control of money, just like the internet did for information

• Bittensor is leading a decentralized AI future

• As capital markets get freer, faster, and cheaper, long-term thinking becomes even rarer

• Adventure is divine

• Just as we separated church & state, we will separate money & state

Interesting reads, watches, listens

Graham Weaver (Alpine Investors) on Invest Like the Best

Blake Scholl (Boom Supersonic) on My First Million

TBPN’s crypto day

Cyan Banister (Long Journey Ventures) on Invest Like the Best

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Comma is an adventure to that frontier - and a call to join the journey.

If you enjoy, hit the ❤️ button, share with friends, and subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

Cheers,

Devin

Adventure is divine

Grit needs an upgrade.

So incomplete. Insufficient.

Grit’s better, cooler, and more evolved cousin?

A yearning for adventure.

I was listening to Jordan Peterson on Diary of a CEO earlier this year, and he said something that dramatically changed me.

Bold statement, I know.

Peterson, well-known for many things - one of which is his strong Christian faith - was asked a question by Steven Bartlett (host of DoaC) that I so deeply appreciated, because it was so clearly an authentic question. The best kind. One steeped in deep curiosity and humility, asked simply because he truly wanted to know Jordan’s answer.

He asked Jordan to describe the god that he believes in.

Tangibly. Specifically.

Is it a man? A feeling? An energy? A knowing?

I so deeply appreciate this question - I’ve long struggled with faith, in the traditional sense, and Steven’s honest pursuit of spiritual truth feels deeply familiar. I see myself in his questions.

Jordan’s answer took me by surprise.

The divine is the call to adventure.

It hit me like a gust of wind.

This idea simply feels more true to me than any other that I had heard.

It’s a concept of the spirit of the divine that I can finally feel and relate to personally.

It’s this idea that God isn’t a man in the sky, or a rigid doctrine - but the name we give to the highest possible aim of our lives, and the force within us aching to live it out.

And just about immediately, it put so many parts of the last several years (the first several of a new chapter in my life) into perspective - the highlights and struggles both.

And what came next?

The realization that that there have been many moments where I’ve been missing it.

Missing what, you might ask?

The adventure.

The adventure of the direction that I’ve chosen for this new chapter of life. And work. And relationships. And all the rest of life.

I came to the realization that so often I’ve been caught in my fears.

Fears that come with facing difficulties that accompany new chapters. Of doing something I’ve never done before. Of becoming a version of myself I’ve never been before.

And with that realization came clarity.

Clarity that fears aren’t the problem - though it can feel like that sometimes.

Clarity that I now know what the real tragedy is.

The real tragedy is all the moments that I’ve missing it.

The adventure.

Clarity that the whole point of it all is the adventure.

Thanks to Steven’s question, this has become so clear. This, I now know.

A past version of me wouldn’t have known.

That Devin from earlier in the story was busy on a different kind of adventure, for different reasons. The difference was that he was doing it not for the adventure, but for the not-so-metaphorical pot of gold on the other side.

But when I embarked on this new chapter, at the new year turning into 2023, I suddenly knew that what mattered was finding the right adventure.

I didn’t use that word at the time.

I said things like (and I quote from my journal) “I’m looking to build a day, a week, a month that I want to live forever.”

Later, as I gained some more perspective, I said things like “I’m seeking aliveness.”

But even though I didn’t use the language of adventure, I knew.

I was on an adventure, to find the the adventure of my life.

When we say yes to the call to adventure, we become someone new - someone who did not exist before embarking.

I sensed that transformation was calling, but I didn’t see just what that meant.

Now, I do.

So when Jordan spoke to that call, that invitation, that inclination, that instinct towards adventure, I knew it was right.

So now, this is what I’m building now.

A life of adventure.

First, the right adventure. (Because there are detours where we can get trapped.)

Then, that adventure, fully experienced.

I now believe that the most tragic moments aren’t the most challenging ones, but the ones where we drift off course, away from fully experiencing the adventure that calls to us.

So, note to self, and a call to you:

Dare to adventure

And, don’t miss it.1

More adventure.

More play.

More human.

More life.

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

Devin here, back again for the April update for Comma Partners.

In last month’s update, we spent the vast majority of the time discussing Trump’s Liberation Day tariff plan.

Believe it or not, that was just one month ago. Time with Trump in charge is like dog years

Let’s jump into what’s happened since.

State-of-the-union

For the month of April:

• Crypto:

  • BTC +14%

  • ETH (-2%)

  • SOL +19%

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 (-0%)

  • NASDAQ +4%

• Gold:

  • Gold +4%

Crypto’s resilience

In last month’s update, published April 5th, I noted that crypto was holding strong - and that it was too early to say with confidence that this strength was here to stay.

It’s still early - sitting only about a month out - but that strength has generally held.

I still hold the belief that each time we’re faced with sudden, dramatic change that’s imposed by someone that’s in charge, the world moves one step closer to realizing the value of a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system that exists outside of our traditional ones.

A quick lesson on the anatomy of the financial plumbing

Given the massive cannonball the Trump administration just yeeted into the pool of the global economy on April 2nd, I’ve been thinking a lot about how these ripple effects will play out.

Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel at Global Macro Investor just published some amazing work on understanding what they call the “Everything Code dominoes.” They provide a great framework for thinking about how world events ripple through markets, and how the pieces are all connected.

I’d like to share some of the insights with you.

Gold & financial conditions

Gold is coincident with the financial conditions (largely driven by the strength of the dollar, oil prices, and rates) as they evolve on the field. It is the real-time barometer of investors’ POV and positioning in response to events unfolding in the world.

Financial conditions have been easing materially, and gold has been on a tear this year.

The USD:

Oil:

Rates:

Gold:

Liquidity

Liquidity follows gold.

It takes about three months for the financial conditions to open the spigot of additional liquidity (if financial conditions are easing), or to sop up existing liquidity (if financial conditions are tightening).

The reason here is simple. If people need to spend more on dollar-denominated things in their day-to-day (e.g., products, services, debt service costs) because financial conditions are tightening (e.g., a stronger dollar, more expensive oil/gas inputs, and/or higher costs of debt), then there’s less money left over (i.e., liquidity) for other spending and investment.

Innovation assets

Three months after that, “innovation” assets (e.g., crypto, tech stocks) follow.

Same logic here. Investing in innovation with inherent uncertainty with respect to its future prospects can only take place after core needs (for both individuals and businesses) are taken care of.

M2 with a 3-month lead vs. Bitcoin:

Gold with a 6-month lead vs. Bitcoin:

Gold with a 6-month lead vs. the NASDAQ:

The business cycle

And after three more months, the business cycle catches these ripple effects.

This shows up in metrics like the ones supplied by the ISM (surveys that track the health of the manufacturing and services sectors).

Alongside the business cycle comes the rest of asset markets, including assets further out on the risk curve, including in crypto.

Financial conditions with a 9-month lead vs. the ISM:

The ISM vs. the S&P 500:

The ISM vs. altcoins:

A recap

Ripple effects take time to flow through the layers of the markets, hence the lag between the various stages.

What it means looking forward

Let’s recap.

Financial conditions have eased

Dollar down.

Oil down.

Rates down.

This means financial conditions are easing. Dramatically. And Fast.

Gold has been on a tear. In my view, this is reflecting both financial conditions, but also a broader response to the vast uncertainty we’ve encountered, especially in the last month.

For about a week after Liberation Day, the VIX stayed above 50.

All the while, the world fled to gold.

So, here we are now, into May, with dramatically looser financial conditions than the start of the year and liquidity at an all-time high (and increasing).

There are risks as the end state of the realignment of global trade unfolds

We have yet to see the full impact of the trade disruption.

We are starting to see a bit of an impact with an uptick in jobless claims, but signals are mixed non-farm payrolls are strong and the PMI is holding up.

But as mentioned above, these sorts of things take time to trickle through the layers of the economy and show up in the data.

We’ll be watching closely for the eventual (likely negative) impact on the real economy.

We also still have real uncertainty with respect to how trade negotiations get resolved, and where the imposed tariffs will ultimately end up.

But, we have greater clarity

That said, our belief is that Trump has already signaled the worst he will allow, and what he will do to bring us back.

Unlike Trump’s first term, It turns out that he is watching the debt markets - not the stock markets.

As 10-year rates touched 4.5% in the days following Liberation Day, Trump released some tariff pressure by announcing a 90-day pause.

The US’s massive debt load and refinancing needs (~$9 trillion needs to be refinanced this year alone, not to mention the ~7% debt-financed deficit we’re still running annually, or the proposed federal budget which would expand the deficit) necessitates attention on the rate markets.

If we approach 4.5% again, look for Trump to ease up on tariff plans.

On top of all of this, eventually, we expect some weaker economic data to reflecting negative impacts of tariff policy, which would give the Fed more room to cut rates and ease from their side.

The Fed has already stated that they view current rates as restrictive, and with no threat of inflation in sight, any impending economic weakness (particularly in the labor markets) should unleash them to cut.

I am erring on the side of assuming the Fed will be slow to respond, given that’s what they’ve shown us time and time again. We saw it today with their decision to hold rates steady. But the flip side of this is that once they do start cutting, they’re likely to go long, stretching the easing cycle further into 2026.

My base case is that we get no cut in June given the strength of the economic data we’re seeing.

Polymarket instantly reflected the strong payroll data last week, as odds of no change in June jumped from ~50% to above 80%.

Let’s keep watching the data.

But let’s not forget the rest of the world. To the extent the US is negatively impacted from all of this, the rest of the world will be even moreso. Which will lead to more widespread support from central banks around the world.

As we’ve said before, China is still facing a brutal economic situation, and they’ve been waiting to stimulate until the dollar weakens so that they don’t nuke their currency.

The TL;DR

To me, macro is looking great.

Could we re-test the lows again if faced with a more protracted trade negotiation than currently expected?

Sure.

But could we also steadily march through year-end as these liquidity tailwinds keep strengthening?

Sure.

While it’s still foggy, we certainly have more clarity than we did after Liberation Day.

Plus, just yesterday, Scott Bessent announced that he would be meeting with China this coming weekend to start trade talks. On the margin, this is positive, and brings increased clarity.

And if we drop to new lows in crypto and equity markets, our view is that we can confidently look to the bond market to signal where and when we’ll get support.

While this scenario playing out would sting, we’d bet the resulting weaker economic backdrop would support an even bolder and more sustained period of support from the Fed and other central banks.

But, as always, we must keep an eye out for the dramatic idiosyncratic risk that Trump can lob into our news feeds with a single announcement, as we so often see with him at the helm.

But that said, if I had to bet, I’d bet that we’ve bottomed for the year.

Last month, I said this:

If we continue to see crypto hold up strongly relative to equities, I get even more confident in a strong 2025 for crypto.

Here we are (so far).

The appeal of crypto is even stronger as we see the impact one person can have on manipulating the entire global economy.

Crypto’s prospects over the long-term are brighter than ever.

Where are we in the crypto cycle?

🟢 Overall, I’d still give us a green light (if we don’t enter a recession).

None of the 6 technical/valuation metrics below are in the warning zone.

These will only matter if we stay out of a broader economic recession.

Bitcoin dominance

Currently: ~65%

Warning zone: ~45%-50% (bottomed ~40% last cycle)

MVRV & Z-score

MVRV

Currently: ~2.2

Warning zone: ~3-3.5 (topped ~3.9 last cycle)

MVRV Z-score

Currently: ~2.3

Warning zone: ~6-7 (topped ~7.5 last cycle)

NUPL

Currently: ~0.54

Warning zone: ~0.6-0.7 (topped ~0.75 last cycle)

Puell multiple

Currently: ~1.1

Warning zone: ~2 (topped ~3.25 last cycle)

Pi cycle top indicator

Currently: not near a cross

Warning zone: when blue line approaches purple line

Some things I’ve been thinking about

Also all on Farcaster

• My “why crypto” talk at Baylor University

• BTC has been decoupling from equities

• Our strategy is still intact

• Tariff hack

Interesting reads, watches, listens

Carl Jung on avoidance

David Senra (Founders Podcast) on Invest Like the Best

Craft is the antidote to slop

David Whyte on how to heal the anxious self

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The next episode of the pod is now available wherever your podcasts live.

This one’s a special one.

Earlier this year, I was invited to present at the February investor meeting of Baylor University's angel investor network.

My goal?

To de-mystify crypto.

To share why I believe in it, and the version of the future it can help create.

To share why I chose to go all in and start a crypto fund.

To share why you should care as well.

This is my best attempt at de-mystifying crypto, why it matters, and why I believe so strongly in it.

The links to the episode are embedded down below ⬇️.

I hope you enjoy.

If you do, hit the ❤️ button, share with friends, and subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

✌🏼,

Devin

Venturing to the frontier: why crypto matters

Chapters

• (00:00) Introduction

• (02:54) What innovation actually looks like

• (04:17) The journey from luddite to starting a crypto fund

• (05:19) Crypto's opportunity

• (05:57) Crypto invites us to re-think how the world works

• (06:39) Why am I here?

• (07:10) Why does crypto matter?

• (08:16) The evolution of the internet

• (09:26) Web3

• (11:45) What can crypto do that the internet can't?

• (15:18) Crypto's future

• (16:47) Why does crypto matter to early stage investors?

• (18:03) From infrastructure to applications

• (18:47) Crypto re-shapes liquidity

• (22:42) Where are we now?

• (23:51) Where are we going?

• (25:18) Q&A: quantum computing

• (26:34) Q&A: AI x crypto

• (29:54) Q&A: stablecoins & broader regulation

• (34:13) Q&A: Bitcoin mining & security

• (36:03) Q&A: blockchain technology's utility beyond currency

• (38:26) Q&A: blockchain security

• (43:01) Q&A: why hasn't crypto been adopted more broadly yet?

• (47:03) Q&A: what do I invest in at Comma Partners?

• (48:23) Q&A: how to think about value in crypto?

Related things you might enjoy ⬇️

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Share

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

April is here.

Welcome to the March update for Comma Partners.

Lots happened in March, but it’s what happened in the first few days of April that are the most important.

Was April 2nd truly Liberation day?

Let’s talk about it.

State-of-the-union

For the month of March:

• Crypto:

  • BTC (-3%)

  • ETH (-19%)

  • SOL (-13%)

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 (-6%)

  • NASDAQ (-8%)

Tariff-ied

Ultimately, tariffs, the market’s response to them, and what happens as a result, is the most important topic at hand.

The first thing worth noting is that I believe U.S. equities and crypto will respond differently to tariffs - or at least move more independently than they have in recent months.

Take a look at how things have moved since the tariff announcement.

While I believe it’s far too early to draw any long-term conclusions about crypto’s impending outperformance through this tariff mayhem (note that this was snipped around 4pm ET on Saturday, April 5), it’s an interesting sign.

Tariffs are an important step for crypto - a technology and asset class that exists outside of the traditional financial system.

There are no tariffs on crypto.

In fact, my view is that the world is increasingly coming to realize the benefit of a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system.

Let’s first jump into some takeaways from the tariff decision, then I’ll get into some of the macro signals to back it up and add more context.

My POV

I think it's very likely that we don't see tariffs actually executed at the high levels included on the hilarious cardboard display board (the likes of which you usually see at a 4th grade science fair).

The rest of the world’s economy is weak relative to the US, and I believe we have to take that into account. I believe widespread retaliation is unlikely.

While I do believe we should very much take these tariffs seriously, I do think Trump will make deals to bring tariffs down. The administration isn’t playing around, setting the initial stance very harsh, but Trump always looks to make a deal.

These tariffs do have a cost, however.

Trump is risking stagflation - slower growth + higher inflation.

Inflation

Most of the narrative I’m hearing is that inflation is a massive risk as a result of these tariffs.

I’m less convinced. This is for a couple reasons.

First, tariffs are theoretically a one-time price increase. Even if material, once these increased costs are processed by the economy at large, they’re behind us.

Sure, prices are re-set higher, but they’re not continually inflating each year thereafter.

Second, I don’t believe inflation as it stands before tariff impacts is an issue.

The March 12 inflation reading came in cooler than expected, and materially lower than the last reading.

Truflation is sitting at 1.3% today, and dropping.

The Truflation reading typically leads the official Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation numbers by ~45 days. If that remains true, the next inflation reading (on April 10) corresponds with the February 24th Truflation reading of ~2.3%.

So, we’re starting from a lower base, and with the the extent to which the inflationary impact of tariffs is debatable, I think growth is the more relevant risk.

Growth

More friction for businesses and consumers means, simply, less growth.

More friction necessitates the metaphorical survival instincts to kick in, meaning more focus on preservation, less risk-taking, and less growth-seeking.

Growth requires investment.

Less investment, less growth.

In my view, growth impacts of these tariffs are the bigger risk.

Slower growth ripples through every layer of the economy. And it’s a feedback loop.

Businesses pull back → weaker business performance → weaker job market → weaker asset markets → net worths go down → less unnecessary spending → weaker business performance → repeat

Weakness begets weakness.

This is the real threat of tariffs.

This is what asset markets are responding to.

This is what could lead us into recession.

Why risk it?

Trump and Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury) have been very clear about their goal.

They want the 10-year rate lower.

The US government has ~$9T - that’s trillion, with a “t” - of debt maturing in 2025 that they need to refinance. Every 1 basis point (0.01%) on the debt is equal to almost a billion dollars of interest per year.

When Trump came into office in January, the 10-year rate was ~4.6%.

Today, it sits at ~4.0%.

That’s a savings of ~$55B - that’s billion, with a “b” - per year of interest costs.

Trump has also stated that he believes that the tariffs will work to re-shore American industry as well as raise revenue to help combat the ~$2T - that’s trillion, with a “t” - annual deficit that the US runs each year.

(There’s a very real debate over whether all these goals can work in concert or if they’re mutually exclusive. I’ll spare getting into the weeds on this one to cover what are in my opinion the more relevant points for our purposes.)

It’s clear that the Trump administration is willing to inflict pain in an effort to accomplish these goals.

How much pain?

That’s the question.

To recession or not to recession?

Asset markets are reflecting deep fears of a recession.

Since the tariff announcements at 4pm ET on April 2nd, The S&P is down (-10.5%) and the NASDAQ is down (-11.0%). From their February highs, the S&P 500 is down (-17.5%) and the NASDAQ is down (-21.5%).

So, are we going there?

Gun to my head, if I had to guess by year-end if we’re in a recession or not - a full-scale crisis with skyrocketing unemployment and sustained negative GDP growth - I’d say no.

Since rates are still high, if we get truly close to (or into) a recession, the Fed will ease materially to support the economy. They have a lot more room to play with than we’ve had in the past to bolster this maneuver if needed.

For context, when COVID hit, the Fed funds rate was ~1.6%.

Today, it’s ~4.3%.

We’re also starting from a base of record-low unemployment (4.2%), driven by a labor shortage in key industries, supported by a precipitous drop in immigration as a result of the new administration’s policies.

Another reality that’s often overlooked is that our economy is ~80% services, and ~20% goods. In 2000, ~68% of our economy was services.

So, the tariffs, dramatic as they might be, are increasingly less recessionary as our economy becomes increasingly more services-driven.

We’re grounded in a pretty resilient starting point to shoulder the new tariff regime.

Macro

Broader macro signals are still showing a ton of strength, and are in fact improving (from the perspective of a crypto/risk asset investor) in response to the tariff announcements.

Weaker USD, lower yields, more rate cuts priced in, all are liquidity positive.

If we avoid a recession, I think the bounce, when it comes, will be dramatic.

The USD

Weakening.

10-year yields

Dropping.

Liquidity & financial conditions

Financial conditions are easing.

Liquidity is rising.

Liquidity leads Bitcoin prices by ~10-12 weeks, and Bitcoin has just about finished pricing in the Q4 2024 contraction.

Zoom out

I think this is long-term bullish for the US and risk assets.

The main question is how much pain we feel before we go up again.

While stock prices may have some more room to go down on these recession fears, when I zoom out, I think the risk of a full-scale economic crisis is low.

My base case is that this is a v-shaped rollercoaster ride that may still take weeks or months to play out.

If we continue to see crypto hold up strongly relative to equities, I get even more confident in a strong 2025 for crypto.

Here are a few things I’ve written last month that I think still very much apply:

So, while we can argue about whether the specific outcomes of all this change are positive or negative, I think what we have to acknowledge is that the cost of uncertainty is real.

So, what does that mean?

It means that, regardless of the actual outcomes of this period of change that we’re in, to the extent that the uncertainty persists - or even increases - we will continue to bear the costs of it.

We are also seeing how newer, more volatile assets at the frontier bear an even steeper cost of uncertainty.

Just look at the February returns I included above. Even despite all the positive headlines for crypto, they haven’t stood a chance against the diffuse uncertainty levied on us all.

Where I stand on uncertainty and fear?

I zoom out.

I see the foundations and fundamentals of crypto improving. I see the regulatory backdrop growing increasingly permissive and supportive. I see a deepening robustness and legitimization in the public zeitgeist and consciousness.

I say that the uncertainty and fear is overblown. The longer the time horizon, the more volatility works for you if it is superimposed against a backdrop of true progress.

Take these fundamentals, sprinkle on an improving traditional macroeconomy macro backdrop, and you can see why I’m positioned for a strong year (and beyond) for crypto.

Remember:

• In 2017, BTC had 5 pullbacks (ranging from (-28%) to (-39%)) in the midst of its journey ~23xing from trough to peak.

• And in 2021, BTC had 5 pullbacks (ranging from (-20%) to (-50%)) on its journey ~2.5xing from trough to peak.

Volatility is the price you pay for explosive asymmetry.

And volatility goes both ways - but crypto’s asymmetry means up > down over the long run.

I stand by what I said in January:

If we do get a more dramatic dump down to $70K-$80K BTC in the next month or two, I view it as a temporary one before we continue to run.

I believe 2025 is set up for another bullish year.

Where are we in the crypto cycle?

🟢 Overall, I’d still give us a green light (if we don’t enter a recession).

None of the 6 technical/valuation metrics below are in the warning zone.

No surprise here given all that’s going on.

These will only matter if we stay out of a broader economic recession.

Bitcoin dominance

Currently: ~62%

Warning zone: ~45%-50% (bottomed ~40% last cycle)

MVRV & Z-score

MVRV

Currently: ~1.9

Warning zone: ~3-3.5 (topped ~3.9 last cycle)

MVRV Z-score

Currently: ~1.8

Warning zone: ~6-7 (topped ~7.5 last cycle)

NUPL

Currently: ~0.48

Warning zone: ~0.6-0.7 (topped ~0.75 last cycle)

Puell multiple

Currently: ~1.3

Warning zone: ~2 (topped ~3.25 last cycle)

Pi cycle top indicator

Currently: not near a cross

Warning zone: when blue line approaches purple line

Some things I’ve been thinking about

Also all on Farcaster

• Taste + action = value

• Volatility does not = risk

• NFTs are powerful

• “...being an artist requires enthusiasm more than discipline”

• Life is an adventure

Interesting reads, watches, listens

Craig Mod and Tim Ferriss in conversation

Parcels: an all-time live studio session

Michael Saylor on Bitcoin

Naval Ravikant and Chris Williamson in conversation

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Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

Happy March, y’all.

You know what that means: the February update for Comma Partners.

Last month, I said the name of the game was volatility. The volatility went both ways.

This month, we still played the volatility game, but this time, it essentially went in one direction only. Down.

Last month, I also said that doctor’s orders were for patience.

This month, I feel the same.

State-of-the-union

For the month of February:

• Crypto:

  • BTC (-17%)

  • ETH (-32%)

  • SOL (-38%)

• Equities:

  • S&P 500 (-0.5%)

  • NASDAQ (-1%)

Let’s not bury the lead

I believe the most probable scenario is that we’ve seen the majority of this wash out as the market has reacted with fear to the bold change (and resulting uncertainty) that Trump and his team have brought into office.

Looking ahead, I think we chop around these levels for the next 1-3 months or so (1 if things move expeditiously, 3 if less so), until we get greater policy clarity and stability.

In December and January, I said that tightening global liquidity in Q4 suggested we could see a move upward in BTC’s price to ~$110K followed by a correction down to ~$70K.

Well, let’s look at what happened.

BTC followed this path almost to a number.

So, while this correction has no doubt been painful to watch, it hasn’t exactly been surprising.

In December, we had a couple short-term dives in price that washed out some leverage, which I thought decreased our chances of taking the full dive to the $70K-$75K levels suggested by the tightening liquidity levels as it removed some fragility and reflexivity in the market.

That may have been true, but as it turns out, Trump was determined to carry out bold change, which has been (and will continue to be) a more fundamental driver of things than investor positioning or leverage at the margin.

I think there is still a decent chance that we go that last bit lower (to $70K-$75K BTC) before things turn around.

And of course, there’s a chance I’m wrong and we continue to dive even further for longer.

But I’m still positioned for this scenario: 1-3 months of chop with a chance we go slightly lower, then a strong remainder of the year.

Why?

I’ll say more later, but for now, just take a look at the right hand side of that chart. Liquidity has been steadily rising.

The disconnect

If you were to look solely at the headlines of crypto-specific news, or shown it to any of us 6 or 12 months ago, what would you have thought?

Here’s just a taste of what we’ve seen in the last several weeks, not by any means comprehensive:

• Head of Policy at the world’s largest crypto fund confirmed as CFTC chair

• The SEC drops lawsuits against a spate of crypto companies (Coinbase, OpenSea, Robinhood, Uniswap, Consensys, Gemini, Tron, and Yuga Labs just to name a few)

• Citadel announces they’re moving into the crypto business

• Bank of America’s CEO says they’re likely to launch their own stablecoin

• BlackRock adds a 1%-2% BTC allocation to its model portfolio

• The US government officially establishes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile

I’ll tell you what I would have thought: higher.

Instead, we got lower.

What happened?

Macro happened.

By macro, I mean both traditional macroeconomy macro (liquidity, inflation, unemployment, GDP, etc.), and policy macro (Trump, geopolitics).

I’ve touched a bit on the policy macro so far, so let me wrap up on that before going to traditional macro.

Policy macro

Uncertainty is “bad” for markets. We know this.

But, at least for me, this idea is often vague. What specifically is bad about uncertainty? How bad is it?

So much of the world is uncertain - but not everything uncertain affects the market. How do we know which uncertain things are “bad,” which are not “bad,” and how severe these “bad” things are?

I may not be able to answer all these questions, but what I can say is that we are seeing a clear example of uncertainty being “bad.”

Sure, some of the possible outcomes of the change underfoot could be “bad” for certain things. As an example, tariffs could be inflationary. (But you can also argue that the outcome of the tariffs on re-shoring industry are positive in other ways. In fact, tariffs during Trump’s last term weren’t exactly inflationary.)

But I would argue that even if you were to take the most dramatically negative scenario of all that’s in flux, it wouldn’t account for the full degree of market pain we’re experiencing.

So, what makes up the rest?

The cost of uncertainty. Fear.

So, while we can argue about whether the specific outcomes of all this change are positive or negative, I think what we have to acknowledge is that the cost of uncertainty is real.

So, what does that mean?

It means that, regardless of the actual outcomes of this period of change that we’re in, to the extent that the uncertainty persists - or even increases - we will continue to bear the costs of it.

We are also seeing how newer, more volatile assets at the frontier bear an even steeper cost of uncertainty.

Just look at the February returns I included above. Even despite all the positive headlines for crypto, they haven’t stood a chance against the diffuse uncertainty levied on us all.

And yet the crypto fear & greed index sits at extreme fear - almost as low as it was after the FTX fraud amidst last crypto bear market...

...all while price sits consistently above last cycle’s highs.

Where I stand on uncertainty and fear?

I zoom out.

I see the foundations and fundamentals of crypto improving. I see the regulatory backdrop growing increasingly permissive and supportive. I see a deepening robustness and legitimization in the public zeitgeist and consciousness.

I say that the uncertainty and fear is overblown. The longer the time horizon, the more volatility works for you if it is superimposed against a backdrop of true progress.

Take these fundamentals, sprinkle on an improving traditional macroeconomy macro backdrop, and you can see why I’m positioned for a strong year (and beyond) for crypto.

Remember:

• In 2017, BTC had 5 pullbacks (ranging from (-28%) to (-39%)) in the midst of its journey ~23xing from trough to peak

• And in 2021, BTC had 5 pullbacks (ranging from (-20%) to (-50%)) on its journey ~2.5xing from trough to peak

Volatility is the price you pay for explosive asymmetry.

And volatility goes both ways - but crypto’s asymmetry means up > down over the long run.

I stand by what I said in January:

If we do get a more dramatic dump down to $70K-$80K BTC in the next month or two, I view it as a temporary one before we continue to run.

I believe 2025 is set up for another bullish year.

Traditional macroeconomy macro

Let’s get into it.

The USD

Over the last several months, I’ve highlighted the USD’s significance in our global macro puzzle.

A weaker USD drives global liquidity mechanically. (Since so much of the world economy is denominated in USD, as it weakens, it frees up additional liquidity for use elsewhere).

A weaker USD also allows other governments with struggling economies (namely China, but also much of Europe) to stimulate without nuking their currencies.

So, what’s been happening to the USD?

It’s weakened since Trump took office. Big time.

Liquidity & financial conditions

BTC has almost fully priced in the tightening of liquidity from Q4 2024.

And Solana has over-corrected.

This is against a backdrop where global liquidity is continuing to rise.

And look at China. They have a ways to go to support their economy.

What could disrupt this trend?

Inflation

There’s a lot of concern out there that inflation will run hot, which would, simply put, make things worse.

Inflation negatively impacts the economy (both companies and consumers), and it drives the Fed to keep financial conditions tight (rates high, QT going) to combat it.

People are worried in particular about the potentially inflationary impact of tariffs.

I’m not, and here’s why:

We’ve already talked about one of the outcomes of the tightening financial conditions from Q4 of last year - pain in asset prices.

But this is the bright side. Inflation should be coming down.

The old-school CPI metrics the Fed looks at have still been flashing above 3%, but I think they’ll increasingly reflect what many believe to be the more accurate picture captured by Truflation.

Latest CPI data is published tomorrow morning, so we’ll quickly see how right or wrong I am, at least in the short-term.

Growth

There’s also fear that the austerity-inducing actions of DOGE will impact growth.

There are even recent forecasts of a GDP contraction for Q1. This would be the first since Q1 2022. (Q4 2024 GDP growth was +2.3%.)

I think this concern is incredibly overblown, and fear-driven.

The manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index, a measure of the health of the manufacturing sector) has been improving.

So has the ISM (Institute for Supply Management, another measure of the health of the manufacturing sector).