1️⃣ Comma Partners: January 2026
Oversold and misunderstood. We still believe
Welcome to Comma Partners
A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital
What the hell happened?
Through the end of 2025, we believed all was not over.
But then it got worse.
What the hell happened?
More in our annual letter here, but this update will be the TLDR version.
[TLDR] Painful though it has been, we still firmly believe that this is a temporary correction amidst the constructive/bull market. We still don’t believe it’s all over.
Though it may take some time, we believe we end 2026 much higher than we entered it.
Market snapshot
Crypto:
BTC (-11%)
ETH (-20%)
SOL (-17%)
Equities:
S&P 500 +1%
NASDAQ +1%
Gold:
Gold +13%
Macro? Still intact
Lead signals all look good:
Financial conditions continue to ease. The USD is down (-10%) over the last year. Oil is down (-15%). Rates are down (-75bps).
Liquidity continues to climb. M2 is turning up. The TGA rebuild is done. Global central banks are leaning on QE. A steeper yield curve makes it more attractive for banks to lend.
The business cycle acceleration just picked up.
Goldilocks: We’re seeing more growth and liquidity alongside disinflation.
[TLDR] Nothing about the macro backdrop has us concerned. In fact, we’re in an even better spot than we were at the end of last year.
Then why are prices down? A perfect storm
Speed & uncertainty: Things are simply moving faster than they ever have (see: AI). When volatility is this high, fear runs rampant. When fear runs rampant, investors de-risk as a result. When the fog rolls in and visibility deteriorates, you slow down the car.
Narratives: AI took the growth narrative, gold and metals took the debasement narrative - both of which are traditionally tailwinds for crypto. The quantum of capital fueling these sucked all away from crypto.
Government shutdowns: Two shutdowns (October to November, then briefly in late January) kept the TGA bloated - cash was flowing in, but spending was frozen, resulting in a temporary liquidity drain. The flip side: when spending resumes (which has begun), liquidity returns.
Rate cuts paused: More patient rhetoric from The Fed came amidst their second pause in this rate cutting cycle.
Quantum fears: To add to the pile, the discussion of crypto’s quantum risk has re-surfaced.
Crypto wasn’t the only victim: Software darlings were similarly punished.
[TLDR] A perfect storm of external factors sparked by the accelerating acceleration of AI led to near-universal narrative and market volatility. Crypto, being both further out the risk curve and fully liquid, was among the hardest hit.
Where do we stand today? We’re buyers
Zoom out: Our time horizon is years, not months. We still see crypto’s path to $100T over the next decade. That’s over a 40x from today.
More important (not less) in a fragmenting geopolitical and technological order: In a world where the post-WWII globalist geopolitical order is being re-shaped, currencies are being weaponized, and institutional trust is eroding, such a system - one that promotes values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy - is urgent. Technology and money both want to be free, and the world relentlessly moves in this direction over time. This is crypto.
Coordination tech, not just fintech: The most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies - language, writing, the printing press, the internet. Crypto is next: digital scarcity, programmable property rights, non-sovereign economic systems, fully permissionless and composable, without intermediaries or gatekeepers.
The application layer of crypto is coming: Crypto is just now at its broadband moment. Reliably negligible costs and near-instant speeds only became a reality in the last couple years. The infrastructure is finally mature enough to support robust applications. And AI may be the iPhone moment - not just because AI agents need crypto rails, but because AI-powered interfaces will abstract away complexity that’s kept mainstream users out. Broadband made the internet usable. The iPhone made it universal. Crypto infrastructure + AI interfaces are the same combination. And when that UX barrier falls, the market it unlocks isn’t a digitized version of today’s products - it’s entirely new categories of economic activity built on individual ownership of what AI can’t replicate: taste, conviction, identity, expertise. The internet created the creator economy and the gig economy from nothing. Crypto + AI creates the next ones, without intermediaries.
The debasement trade is still early: Sovereign budgets and debt loads are still unsustainable. Until AI and robotics drive massive productivity (still years away), monetary debasement remains the way out. Gold historically moves first, then BTC follows and outperforms.
AI needs crypto: Covered below - but the short version: agents need programmable money, AI needs digital scarcity, and centralized AI needs decentralized technology.
AI fears are actually crypto tailwinds: The AI fears that spooked the market sell-off are actually long-term tailwinds. The narratives that punished crypto actually need crypto to work.
Agents need crypto rails: Agent-based economics requires programmable money. Agent-based activity require permissionless, composable technology. Agent-based identity requires onchain reputation. Today, not a single traditional financial institution is able to service AI agents. Crypto is.
AI needs digital scarcity: AI makes the supply of digital things (software products, content, etc.) infinite. Digital scarcity and fixed supply is even more valuable in this world. This is crypto.
AI needs decentralization: AI is the single most centralizing force in generations. Compute, data, and model access are concentrating in a handful of companies. Crypto is the counterweight: open, decentralized systems for identity, money, ownership, and compute where control is distributed across millions (and eventually billions). The more AI centralizes power, the stronger the case for crypto.
We’re missing key ingredients to a prolonged crypto bear market: Every prior crypto bear market coincided with a contraction in global liquidity, rate hikes, and a rollover in the business cycle.
Oversold: Crypto is the most oversold it’s ever been, at the same time that it’s the most important and necessary it’s ever been.
Rates should continue to ease: Though the Fed paused, rates are still restrictive. We expect disinflation to continue, all but daring the Fed to continue to cut. Plus, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, though not a fan of QE, is still an advocate of lower rates. The next move should still be to cut.
Clarity Act: Already passed the House, but stalled in the Senate over the stablecoin yield debate. Scott Bessent is pushing for a spring signing, and the midterms create urgency to pass this before then. If passed, it unblocks one of the key hurdles necessary for crypto’s full evolution. Not only would this remove fear and uncertainty from investors, but more importantly, unleash builders to continue to evolve the technology into its full potential.
Quantum fears: Risks are real, but they’re not just crypto-specific - quantum threatens literally any system built with digital encryption. Post-quantum cryptography standards already exist, and work is underway at crypto projects. The timeline for a genuine threat is 5-20 years depending on who you ask, but this is a solvable engineering problem, not an existential one.
[TLDR] The market is pricing crypto as though the thesis is dying. This divergence in the short-term is setting up a long-term asymmetry. Nobody is positioned for this.
If you believe in crypto’s value, though it may seem paradoxical, we have a rare setup that we’ve only gotten a handful of times in crypto’s history: extreme fear and apathy, technically the most oversold it’s ever been, amidst a backdrop of incredibly positive tailwinds - both macro and fundamental.
We’re buyers here.
What are we watching? Our leading indicators
Financial conditions: Looking for continued USD stability (or further weakness) and lower rates.
Liquidity: The TGA remains $100B+ above target levels. Continued easing of financial conditions will fuel further liquidity, and crypto responds fast.
Clarity Act progress: As mentioned, Bessent is pushing for a spring signing. There’s a real window before the midterms where passing the bill is possible.
Narrative shifts: The AI and debasement trade narratives today moved away from crypto. We’re watching for any reversals in their beneficiaries (especially gold and other metals), as well as any fundamental catalysts for crypto.
[TLDR] As of today, the macro backdrop remains incredibly constructive. We’re watching first and foremost for any shifts towards a weaker regime, as well as for other specific catalysts.
Until next month,
Devin
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