3️⃣ Comma Partners: March 2026

Cautiously optimistic

Devin Baker

Apr 21, 2026

Welcome to Comma Partners

A new-paradigm crypto fund investing at the frontier of
community, technology, culture, & capital

Is the war in Iran over or not?

It’s basically predictable at this point.

On Friday comes the declaration that we’ve agreed on a ceasefire and are working towards terms for peace.

Come Monday morning, the Strait of Hormuz is closed yet again and nothing’s been agreed.

[TLDR] Relative to where we were a month ago, things are undeniably better on the margin.
Last month, we were cautious in the short-term. This month, we’re cautiously optimistic.

Market snapshot

For the month of March.

Crypto:

BTC +2%
ETH +7%
SOL (-2%)

Equities:

S&P 500 (-5%)
NASDAQ (-4%)

Gold:

Gold (-12%)

The single largest factor remains the Iran War. How does macro look?

Financial conditions have eased slightly. The USD has weakened.

Oil has come down, even through volatility.

Rates have come down as well.

Fed net liquidity is steadily rising, while there’s debate about global liquidity: Fed net liquidity is undeniably increasing, and debates on global liquidity are largely driven by fluctuations in the strength of the USD. The eSLR reductions for banks also kicked in April 1st, unleashing material lending capacity, which drives liquidity in the system.

The real economy in the US is still expanding: The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, while the Services PMI decreased slightly - though both remained above 50, the key level denoting growth (vs. contraction). The bright spot - breadth of the expansion is increasing, with 13 of 18 industries reporting growth (up from low single digits).

Inflation ticked back up above 3%: Truflation remains flat from last month, though still down from the end of 2025.

[TLDR] Macro has improved on the margin from last month. That said, oil prices still remain ~40% higher than before the war broke out.
The key risk in our view remains stagflation if the conflict remains unresolved - where these disruptions both increase inflation and hinder growth.

The Trump playbook: Markets are in charge

The administration appears to be responding to a few key market metrics, just like in the Liberation Day aftermath of last year: As the 2-year approaches 4.0%, the 10-year approaches 4.5%, the MOVE index approaches 120, and the VIX remains above 30, Trump seems to pivot.
While volatility remains, the trend is towards resolution, not (serious, prolonged) escalation: The weekend peace announcement, quickly undone with escalatory comments late Sunday/early Monday continues, but the trend is towards resolution. Key “fire alarm” metrics like the VIX and the MOVE index have come down dramatically.
Markets often bottom on bad news: Markets are forward-looking, and respond more to the rate-of-change and overall direction than absolute levels. Though things remain unresolved, we believe it’s very possible that markets have bottomed since the path ahead is clearer than it was a month ago. Markets hate uncertainty more than almost anything else.
Sentiment remains offsides if the recovery continues.

The Trump administration has to pull a rabbit out of a hat ahead of the midterms: Let’s not forget how critical the midterm elections are - and they’re coming up this fall. The administration needs to turn things around to reverse the slide in approval ratings. Look for key shifts in his most unpopular domains - especially the economy and inflation. Trump may not be able to tame inflation, but look for “the acronym factory” - any means necessary to get money in people’s pockets. Translated: more liquidity, and more cowbell.

[TLDR] Though risks remain, in our view, the trend is towards resolution, and markets have likely bottomed in the short-term.

Crypto remains resilient, even through war and state-sponsored hacks

Crypto remains the best performer from the day before the war broke out: The liquidity backdrop is still a key tailwind, and on the margin, financial conditions are improving. BTC is delivering on its vision - a neutral, non-sovereign store of value. In the context of global economic and kinetic war, its utility skyrockets.

Crypto’s functionality through crises proves its value: Through both global military conflict and North Korea’s state-sponsored DeFi hack this past week, crypto’s protocols kept running. No successful hack is good news, but the absence of system-wide contagion is - the asset class is now resilient enough to absorb a sovereign-state attack without breaking.
Open systems get stronger under stress: Free, permissionless protocols evolve in response to attacks in a way closed systems can’t. DeFi will learn from this vulnerability and end up stronger for it - the natural selection of free markets will ensure it. This is the long-run case for crypto in one sentence: every attack that gets absorbed compounds the system’s resilience.
Sentiment will improve from here: Open technologies like crypto feel more chaotic in the short-term. This chaos and volatility feel grating, and it’s no surprise that crypto sentiment has been awful. But we think it’s bottomed. Our (somehow) contrarian view: crypto is in a better spot than it’s ever been. Crypto will be fine.

[TLDR] Crypto is behaving exactly as it should in this regime - liquidity-sensitive on the upside, resilient through stress on the downside. We remain deep believers in crypto over the long-term - and cautiously optimistic in the short-term as we navigate through the remainder of the war in Iran.

Until next month,
Devin

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